[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 24 09:30:27 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Apr             25 Apr             26 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23 April. 
SOHO LASCO C2 imagery showed no CMEs over the last 24 hours. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 
days with a slight chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed 
ranged from 600 km/s to 420 km/s over the last 24 hours due to 
recurrent coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Currently the solar 
wind just under 500 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field varied between +8/-9 nT over the last 24 hours, 
however was predominantly positive. Expect the solar wind speed 
to remain elevated over the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12122123
      Cocos Island         4   12111122
      Darwin               6   22112123
      Townsville           7   22122123
      Learmonth            7   22122123
      Alice Springs        6   12122123
      Norfolk Island       6   12121123
      Gingin               6   12112223
      Camden               7   22122123
      Canberra             5   12122122
      Launceston           7   22122223
      Hobart               6   12122123    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     5   11023112
      Casey                9   33222123
      Mawson              23   34322246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           24   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   2222 4334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled for the 
UT day, 23 April due to an increase in solar wind speed. Expect 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions to prevail over the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect lower then predicted MUFs over the next 3 days 
due to low ionization levels resulting from lower than predicted 
solar activity for this period in the solar cycle.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Apr    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
25 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
26 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day, 23 April, 
were generally depressed over all Australian region this was 
mainly associated with low incoming solar ionising flux. Conditions 
are expected to remain depressed over the next three day. Isolated 
periods of sporadic E were noted in the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 464 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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