[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 24 09:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23 April.
SOHO LASCO C2 imagery showed no CMEs over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
days with a slight chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed
ranged from 600 km/s to 420 km/s over the last 24 hours due to
recurrent coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Currently the solar
wind just under 500 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field varied between +8/-9 nT over the last 24 hours,
however was predominantly positive. Expect the solar wind speed
to remain elevated over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 12122123
Cocos Island 4 12111122
Darwin 6 22112123
Townsville 7 22122123
Learmonth 7 22122123
Alice Springs 6 12122123
Norfolk Island 6 12121123
Gingin 6 12112223
Camden 7 22122123
Canberra 5 12122122
Launceston 7 22122223
Hobart 6 12122123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
Macquarie Island 5 11023112
Casey 9 33222123
Mawson 23 34322246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 2222 4334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled for the
UT day, 23 April due to an increase in solar wind speed. Expect
Quiet to Unsettled conditions to prevail over the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect lower then predicted MUFs over the next 3 days
due to low ionization levels resulting from lower than predicted
solar activity for this period in the solar cycle.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day, 23 April,
were generally depressed over all Australian region this was
mainly associated with low incoming solar ionising flux. Conditions
are expected to remain depressed over the next three day. Isolated
periods of sporadic E were noted in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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