[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 21 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 22 09:30:46 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to range from Very Low to Low for
the next 3 days with a chance of C-class events. The solar wind
speed increased slightly to be ~450km/s at the time of this report.
The Bz component varied between +/-5 nT predominantly northward.
The solar wind speed is expected to increase from 23-Apr under
coronal hole influence.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Cocos Island 2 11110110
Darwin 3 11220111
Townsville 4 21221111
Learmonth 5 12221121
Alice Springs 1 00110111
Norfolk Island 2 11110111
Gingin 2 11210110
Camden 2 11110111
Canberra 1 10110010
Launceston 3 11210121
Hobart 1 01110110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00100010
Casey 9 22431122
Mawson 8 23321221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1122 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 7 Quiet
23 Apr 20 Quiet to Active.
24 Apr 16 Quiet to Active.
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet to Active
with possible Minor Storm levels for 23 Apr due to the anticipated
arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Quiet
to Active conditions for 24 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Fair-poor Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Fair-poor Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Apr Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor-fair
24 Apr Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor-fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions are expected for all latitudes
over the next 3 days with periods of disturbed ionospheric support
for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 20 Depressed 20 %/near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 10 About 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Apr 10 About 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 20 April
and is current for 20-22 Apr. Conditions for HF radio propagation
on UT day 21 Apr were generally mildly depressed over all Australian
regions. Conditions are expected to be mildly depressed today,
22 Apr. The above HF conditions are mainly associated with low
incoming solar ionising flux. On UT days 23-24 Apr, the mid and
high latitude regions could experience slightly stronger MUF
depressions in response to the expected active geomagnetic conditions
on 23 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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