[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 16 issued 2331 UT on 17 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 18 09:31:06 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 102/50 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be low over the next 3 days, with a slight
(15%) chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed varied between
~~380 km/s to ~460 km/s and is currently around 390 km/s. The
total IMF strength increased from after 16 UT to peak at 13 nT,
currently around 12 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative
from 01-18 UT, down to around -6 nT, and is now around +5 nT.
A northern hemisphere coronal hole is likely to elevate the solar
wind speed during 18-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 33222332
Cocos Island 10 33221332
Darwin 12 33222333
Townsville 12 33223332
Learmonth 14 34233332
Alice Springs 11 33222332
Norfolk Island 8 33222221
Culgoora 10 33222322
Gingin 11 32232332
Camden 10 33222322
Canberra 10 33222322
Launceston 16 34332432
Hobart 12 33322422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
Macquarie Island 23 34354521
Casey 12 34322223
Mawson 37 55533455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 1023 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 20 Quiet to active
19 Apr 20 Unsettled to Active
20 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled across
the Australian region on 17-Apr, with brief active periods in
some locations. Minor storm levels were observed in the Antarctic.
Further active periods are likely 18-19 Apr due to coronal hole
effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
19 Apr Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
20 Apr Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely 18-20 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 25 to
35%
19 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
20 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 16 April
and is current for 17-19 Apr. Significantly depressed MUFs were
observed across the Australian region on 17-Apr. Sporadic-E observed
at Canberra 14-15 UT and Hobart 12-14 UT. Spread-F observed in
the south for varying periods during the latter half of the UT
day. MUF depressions are likely to persist for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 85100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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