[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 16 issued 2352 UT on 18 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 19 09:52:39 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.7 0029UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
region 2529 the source of a M6.7 flare at 0029UT. The associated
CME was visible in LASCO C2 imagery between 00UT to 04UT where
the bulk of solar material is directed out to the west. There
is a small chance that this CME could result in a minor glancing
blow over the next 24-48 hours. The solar wind speed remained
steady over the last 24 hours at ~390km/s. The north-south component
of the IMF Bz decreased from a maximum of 10nT at 00UT to approx
3nT at the time of this report, with only one notable southward
excursion between 07-08UT of -6nT. A northern hemisphere located
coronal hole is likely to elevate the solar wind speed over the
next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to range from Low to
Moderate over the next 2 days, with a slight (20%) chance of
M-class events. Low to Very Low activity expected for 21Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 32210011
Cocos Island 8 44210000
Darwin 5 32211011
Townsville 6 32311011
Learmonth 5 32311001
Alice Springs 4 32210001
Norfolk Island 3 31210010
Culgoora 4 32210011
Gingin 2 21210010
Camden 4 32210011
Canberra 2 21210000
Launceston 6 32221111
Hobart 3 22210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 21120000
Casey 9 43330011
Mawson 5 23220012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21 4532 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 20 Active
20 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
21 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Quiet to
Active with possible Minor Storm effects over the next 24 hours
due to the anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream. Unsettled to Active conditions for 20Apr and Quiet
to Unsettled conditions for 21 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
20 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
21 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed at all latitudes over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for mid to
low latitudes over the next 3 days with possible disturbed ionospheric
support for mid to high latitudes should geomagnetic activity
increase.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 5 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
20 Apr 10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Apr 15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 16 April
and is current for 17-19 Apr. Depressed MUFs were observed across
the majority of Australian regions over the last 24 hours. Continued
MUF depressions of 20-40% are expected for all regions over the
next 3 days with disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 26200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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