[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 16 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 17 09:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest
event being a C5 X-ray flare from region 2529 (N11W35), peaking
at 16/1958 UT. An associated CME needs more analysis to determine
its likely effect. Solar activity is expected to be low over
the next 3 days, with a slight (10%) chance of M-class events.
The solar wind took a step up around 05 UT, peaking around 510
km/s, currently ~420 km/s. The total IMF strength peaked around
10 nT, currently about 7 nT. The Bz component dipped to -9 nT,
is currently neutral, and had extended mostly southward periods
05-10 UT and 16-21 UT. A northern hemisphere coronal hole is
likely to elevate the solar wind speed during 18-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 11232433
Cocos Island 8 11211423
Darwin 8 11222323
Townsville 9 11232323
Learmonth 11 11232433
Alice Springs 11 01232433
Norfolk Island 6 10232222
Culgoora 10 11232333
Gingin 11 00132434
Camden 11 11232433
Canberra 10 00232433
Launceston 14 11243433
Hobart 12 01242433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 22 00264443
Casey 13 23332333
Mawson 34 21343566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 4200 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Apr 15 Quiet to Active
19 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the Australian
region on 16-Apr, apart from an active period 09-18 UT following
a period of negative IMF Bz. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
to prevail until the arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind
stream on 18-Apr, though unsettled periods are possible 17 Apr
if IMF Bz has another extended southward period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Poor-fair Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Poor-fair Fair-normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Apr Poor-fair Fair-normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely 17-19-Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
18 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
19 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 16 April
and is current for 17-19 Apr. Significantly depressed MUFs were
observed across the Australian region on 16-Apr. Enhanced MUFs
observed daytime at Cocos Island. Spread-F observed in most locations
for varying periods during the latter half of the UT day. Moderate
to significant MUF depressions are likely to persist for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 65700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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