[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 12 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 13 09:30:33 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with 
C-class flares from region 2529 (N10E13). Further C-class flaring 
is expected from this region over the next few days, with a 35% 
chance of M-class flares on 13-Apr. An partial halo CME observed 
on 12-Apr appears to be a backside event. The solar wind speed 
increased after 19 UT, peaking around 520 km/s, with the onset 
of coronal hole effects. The total IMF strength increased gradually 
from 8 nT, peaked at 17 nT and is currently around 10 nT. The 
Bz component has been mostly southward since around 07 UT, dipping 
to -12 nT since the coronal hole onset.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22123343
      Cocos Island        11   22212343
      Darwin              12   22123343
      Townsville          14   32123443
      Learmonth           16   23123444
      Alice Springs       12   22123343
      Norfolk Island      10   22123333
      Gingin              22   22123365
      Camden              13   22123443
      Canberra             9   22122333
      Launceston          15   22223444    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    19   11225543
      Casey               17   44322334
      Mawson              33   34234366

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1001 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    25    Active to Minor Storm
14 Apr    25    Active to Minor Storm
15 Apr    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 11 April and 
is current for 12-14 Apr. Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet 
across Australia on 12-Apr until around 15 UT, when conditions 
became active. Current conditions are unsettled to active. Storm 
levels were observed from 12 UT in the Antarctic region. Active 
conditions are likely to continue for 13-14 Apr in the Australian 
region before become more settled by 15-Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair-normal
14 Apr      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair-normal
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely over the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
14 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
15 Apr    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 11 April 
and is current for 12-14 Apr. Some significant MUF nighttime 
depressions were observed in northern Australia and equatorial 
regions on 12-Apr. MUF depressions are likely to persist 13-14 
Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    64200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list