[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 11 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 12 09:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
C-class flares from region 2529 (N10E32). Further C-class flaring
is expected from this region over the next few days, with a 30%
chance of M-class flares on 12-Apr. A filament lifted off from
just west of this region on 10-Apr and could give Earth a weak
glancing blow on 13-Apr. Another filament liftoff from the NW
quadrant later on 10-Apr is not expected to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed has varied between 340-400 km/s and is currently
~~360km/s. The total IMF strength increased from 6 nT, peaked
at 11 nT and is currently around 9 nT. The Bz component varied
between +/-7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
from late on 12-Apr under coronal hole influence.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11001321
Cocos Island 4 11111310
Darwin 5 21002321
Townsville 6 21012322
Learmonth 4 10002320
Alice Springs 4 11002321
Norfolk Island 2 10001211
Gingin 3 10001320
Camden 4 21111221
Canberra 1 00001210
Launceston 4 11011321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 00012310
Casey 6 11211411
Mawson 11 20001425
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1231 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 15 Quiet to Minor storm
13 Apr 25 Active to Minor Storm
14 Apr 25 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the Australian
region on 11-Apr, with unsettled conditions 15-18 UT. Quiet conditions
are likely to continue until the expected onset of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed wind stream later on 12-Apr. More active
conditions should follow, possibly reaching minor storm levels.
A glancing blow from a lifting solar filament could contribute
to this disturbance from 13-Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal-poor Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal-poor
14 Apr Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
13 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
14 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: Some significant MUF depressions were observed in northern
Australia and equatorial regions on 11-Apr. Depressed periods
are likely over the next 3 days, with an expected increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 48500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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