[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 14 09:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
A CME observed heading NW is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days, with
a slight (10%) chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed
peaked around 695 km/s and has since declined to ~500km/s. The
solar wind speed is likely to remain elevated for another day
or so. Total IMF strength has declined from around 10 nT to 4
nT. The Bz component has varied between +/-5 nT since 08 UT.
If Earth receives a glancing blow from the 10-Apr CME, solar
wind parameters could again become more disturbed on 14-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 32333332
Cocos Island 9 32223321
Darwin 10 32333221
Townsville 11 32333231
Learmonth 17 43343332
Alice Springs 14 32343332
Norfolk Island 10 32333221
Culgoora 13 32333332
Gingin 17 42343342
Camden 17 33443332
Canberra 10 32333221
Launceston 24 43544432
Hobart 18 33444332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie Island 40 43566532
Casey 16 43433232
Mawson 55 75544465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 60 (Unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 2212 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 25 Active to Minor Storm
15 Apr 12 Unsettled
16 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 11 April and
is current for 12-14 Apr. Magnetic conditions reached active
levels across the Australian region on 13-Apr after the arrival
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Storm level conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet conditions have
returned across Australia since 21 UT, but further disturbance
is possible on 14-Apr if a predicted CME glancing blow occurs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
15 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely over the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
15 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
16 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 11 April
and is current for 12-14 Apr. Some significant periods of depressed
MUFs were observed across Australia and equatorial regions on
13-Apr. Sporadic-E was observed in Brisbane around 12 UT, Darwin
20-21 UT and Cocos Island around 21 UT. Spread-F was observed
in Hobart 12-20 UT. MUF depressions are likely to persist on
14-15 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 92500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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