[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 16 issued 2348 UT on 08 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 9 09:48:13 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 8 April, with only one weak C-class flare (C1.1) from Region
2529. However, the background x-ray flux continuos to rise. Notably,
Region 2529 is a relatively large region (Length 10 degree) and
has recently rotated into an earth-facing position. So over the
next 2-days (9-10 April) there is chance of C-class flares and
weak chance of stronger M-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available satellite imagery during the last
24 hrs. An eruptive filament,approximately 10 degrees long, was
observed on the northeast quadrant (N05E40) at about 08/2128
UT. At the time of writing this report, the LASCO coronagraph
imagery around the time of eruption was not available to determine
if this event triggered an earth-directed CME. The solar wind
gradually decreased from ~380 km/s to ~340 km/s in response to
the waning effects of the small southern hemisphere coronal hole.
The Bz component at the beginning of the UT day 8 April fluctuated
between -10 and +10 nT, and then for most of the UT day had been
steady around +3 NT. Bt dropped from 15 nT to 5 nT as Bz became
steady. The outlook for 9 April is for the solar winds to slowly
trend towards ambient levels as the effects of the coronal hole
further wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 22110000
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 2 22110001
Townsville 2 22110001
Learmonth 2 22110100
Alice Springs 2 22110001
Norfolk Island 2 22010000
Gingin 1 22000000
Camden 2 22110001
Canberra 1 12000000
Launceston 3 23110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 33100100
Casey 8 44220010
Mawson 12 54210003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 2011 1345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 7 Quiet
10 Apr 7 Quiet
11 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 8 April and
is current for 8-9 Apr. The geomagnetic conditions reached active
levels at the beginning of the UT day (8 April), and then dropped
to mostly quiet levels. The active conditions at the onset of
day was because of prolonged strongly southwards IMF Bz starting
from 07/1800 UT. The outlook for next two days (9-10 April) is
for geomagnetic conditions to be mostly quiet to unsettled in
response to the waning effects of a small southern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be depressed in the high and mid-latitude regions today, 9 April,
due to the aftermath of active conditions observed on UT day
7 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 7 April
and is current for 8-9 Apr. Conditions for HF radio propagation
on UT day 8 April were generally depressed over all Australian
regions, except near the equatorial regions (e.g. Niue island).
Conditions are expected to remain depressed today, 9 Apr, due
to the aftermath of active conditions observed on UT day 7 April.
HF conditions are expected to recover to mildly depressed to
nearly monthly predicted values by UT day 10 April. HF users
are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 43000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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