[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 10 09:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
9 April, with several weak C-class flares all from Region 2529.
This Region has undergone significant growth in the past 24 hours
and therefore is threatening to produce more C-class flares and
possibly weak chance of stronger M-class flares over the next
two days (10-11 April). We still do not have appropriate LASCO
coronagraph imagery to determine if the eruptive filament observed
on the northeast solar quadrant (N05E40) at about 08/2128 UT
did produce an earth-directed CME. No new earth-directed CMEs
could be identified for the past 24 hours due to bad satellite
data. The solar wind speeds continue to trend towards background
ambient levels. The current solar wind speed is near 330 km/s.
The Bz component fluctuated between -2 and +5 nT during the past
24 hours. Bt was steady near 5 nT for the UT day. The two day
outlook (10-12 April) is for the solar winds to remain low, near
the background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11000200
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 2 11000201
Townsville 2 11000201
Learmonth 1 11000200
Alice Springs 0 00000200
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Gingin 1 00100200
Camden 1 10000101
Canberra 0 0-000100
Launceston 2 11101200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 3 12210200
Mawson 4 11230111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 4221 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 7 Quiet
11 Apr 7 Quiet
12 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions was at quiet levels over
the Australian region for the past 24 hours (9 April). The outlook
for next two days (10-11 April) is for generally quiet geomagnetic
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be moderately depressed in the high and mid-latitude regions
today, 10 April, due to the aftermath of active conditions observed
on UT day 7 April. HF conditions are expected to recover to mildly
depressed to nearly monthly predicted values by UT day 11 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 25 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 9 April
were significantly depressed over all Australian regions, except
near the equatorial regions (e.g. Niue island). Conditions are
expected to slightly recover to moderately depressed levels today,
10 Apr. The HF depression over the past 48 hours is due to the
aftermath of active conditions observed on UT day 7 April. HF
conditions are expected to recover to mildly depressed to nearly
monthly predicted values by UT day 11 April. HF users are advised
to continue to use lower than the monthly predicted frequencies
for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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