[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 8 09:30:31 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              90/34              95/41

COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day, 
7 April, with three C-class flares. The strongest C1.4 flares 
peaked at 07/0117UT and 07/0553 UT. Since the background x-ray 
flux has gradually increased over the last 48 hours, the 2-day 
outlook (8-9 April) is for low solar activity with C-class flares 
likely. The 06/1524 UT CME with an estimated shock speed of 445 
km/s has a very low probability of affecting earth. No other 
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery 
during the last 24 hrs. The solar wind has been steady around 
~~380 km/s for most of the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF 
turned from moderately northwards to strongly southward at 07/1800 
UT, and remained strongly southwards for subsequent 6 hours. 
Bt increased from 5 nT to 15 nT associated with this change in 
IMF Bz conditions. The outlook for 8 April is for the solar winds 
to start enhancing again in response to a recurrent southern 
hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective location.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11110134
      Cocos Island         6   -1110233
      Darwin               6   11210133
      Townsville           7   11211233
      Learmonth           11   11121235
      Alice Springs        5   11110133
      Norfolk Island       5   10111133
      Gingin              11   11110145
      Camden               5   11110133
      Canberra             4   00000133
      Launceston           9   11111244    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   00011123
      Casey               11   23320134
      Mawson              37   32121238

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2112 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr    18    Active
09 Apr    12    Unsettled
10 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were initially quiet to unsettled 
and reached active levels towards the end of the UT day (7 April). 
This is a combined effect of prolonged strongly southwards IMF 
Bz starting from 07/1800 UT and stable solar wind speeds. The 
Australian region DST dipped to a minimum of -42 nT at 07/2200 
UT. The outlook for UT day 8 April is for geomagnetic conditions 
to be mostly quiet to unsettled, but at times could reach active 
levels. This is due to the expected enhancement in solar wind 
speeds due to a small recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole 
moving into a geoeffective location on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be strongly depressed in the high and mid-latitude regions today, 
8 April, due to the geomagnetic storm in progress.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr    15    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Apr    25    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Apr    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 7 April 
were generally mildly depressed over all Australian regions. 
Conditions are expected to be heavily depressed today, 8 Apr, 
due to the geomagnetic storm in progress. HF conditions are expected 
to recovery to mildly depressed to nearly monthly predicted values 
by UT day 10 April. HF users are advices to use lower than the 
monthly predicted frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    77900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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