[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 7 09:30:30 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              92/37              95/41

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 6 April, with two weak C-class flares. The strongest flare 
C1.4 peaked at 06/1652UT. There are currently three numbered 
Earth-facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook 
(7-8 April) is for very low solar activity with chance of C-class 
flares. A CME was observed to have occurred around 06/1524 UT 
in coronagraph imagery. More information on the possible impact 
of this CME, if any, at Earth will be provide upon further investigation 
and completion of our model runs. Preliminary investigation 
suggest that this CME may be associated with eruptions from the 
rear-side of the sun. The solar wind has been at the moderately 
elevated level of ~400 km/s for most of the UT day, however, 
is exhibiting a very weak declining trend. The Bz component of 
the IMF remained near 0 nT, fluctuating between -5 nT and +5 
nT. Bt was nearly constant, near 7 nT throughout the UT day. 
The outlook for 7-8 April is for the solar winds to enhance slightly 
in response to a small recurrent southern hemisphere coronal 
hole moving into a geoeffective location.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21123211
      Cocos Island         3   10122200
      Darwin               4   21122201
      Townsville           6   21223211
      Learmonth            5   21123210
      Alice Springs        7   21223301
      Norfolk Island       3   10122200
      Gingin               7   21123311
      Camden               7   --123212
      Canberra             3   10122200
      Launceston           7   11223311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     9   11144300
      Casey               16   34523311
      Mawson              23   33333355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2111 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active
08 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled 
during the last 24 hours (6 April). The outlook for UT day 7 
April is for geomagnetic conditions to be mostly quiet to unsettled, 
but at times could reach active levels. This is due to a small 
recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective 
location on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values during 7 
Apr UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr    41    Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr    35    Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr    41    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 6 April 
were generally mildly depressed over all Australian regions. 
Conditions are expected to be mildly depressed to near predicted 
monthly values today, 7 Apr. On UT day 8 Apr, the mid and high 
latitude regions could experience slightly stronger MUF depressions 
in response to the expected active geomagnetic conditions on 
7 Apr. The changes in the maximum ionospheric densities are usually 
delayed by several hours after the onset of active magnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    74400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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