[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 05 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 6 09:30:26 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    83/24              84/26              87/30

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 5 April, with no C-class flares. There are currently three 
numbered Earth-facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The 
2-day outlook (6-7 April) is for very low solar activity with 
weak chance of smaller C-class flares. A CME was observed to 
have occurred around 05/1248 UT, but appears to be triggered 
by a rear-side event. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in 
available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind has been nearly 
constant, at the moderately elevated level of ~400 km/s during 
the past 24 hrs. The Bz component of the IMF remained near 0 
nT, fluctuating between -3 nT and +6 nT. Bt was nearly constant, 
near 8 nT throughout the UT day. The outlook for 6-7 April is 
for the solar winds to enhance slightly in response to a small 
recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective 
location.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11012122
      Cocos Island         3   01--1121
      Darwin               2   11012011
      Townsville           4   11013012
      Learmonth            3   11002121
      Alice Springs        2   01002021
      Norfolk Island       3   10013012
      Gingin               6   11003232
      Camden               6   11213122
      Canberra             1   00002011
      Launceston           5   11013122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     6   00015010
      Casey               11   23422132
      Mawson              23   33212365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2221 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active
08 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled 
during the last 24 hours (5 April). Similar geomagnetic conditions 
are expected on UT day 6 April as the solar wind speeds are still 
at moderate levels. On UT day 7 April, the geomagnetic active 
at times could reach active levels. This is due to a small recurrent 
southern hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective location 
on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values during 6 
Apr UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Apr    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr    41    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr    41    Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 5 April 
generally were mildly depressed in low latitude regions, and 
near monthly predicted levels at the mid and high latitude stations. 
Conditions are expected to be mildly depressed to near predicted 
monthly values today, 6 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    67800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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