[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Apr 5 09:30:33 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr:  83/24

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    83/24              83/24              83/24

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 4 April, with no C-class flares. There are currently three 
numbered Earth-facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The 
2-day outlook (5-6 April) is for very low solar activity with 
weak chance of smaller C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind 
has been nearly constant, at the moderately elevated level of 
~~400 km/s during the past 24 hrs. These moderate solar wind speeds 
are associated with high speed streams emanating from a northern 
hemisphere coronal hole (CH726). The Bz component of the IMF 
fluctuated between -5 nT and 6 nT. Bt was nearly constant, near 
8 nT throughout the UT day. The outlook for 5-6 April is for 
the solar winds to gradually become enhanced in response to another 
reoccuring southern hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective 
location.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22112001
      Cocos Island         2   21111001
      Darwin               3   21112001
      Townsville           4   22112111
      Learmonth            4   21123001
      Alice Springs        3   22012001
      Norfolk Island       2   11112000
      Gingin               6   22113112
      Camden               4   22112101
      Canberra             2   11012000
      Launceston           5   22113101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   21112100
      Casey               12   34333102
      Mawson              19   44243025

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   5433 1223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active
07 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled 
during the last 24 hours (4 April). Similar geomagnetic conditions 
are expected on UT day 5 April as the solar wind speeds are still 
at moderate levels in response to the Northern Hemisphere coronal 
hole. On UT day 6 April, the geomagnetic active is expected to 
reach active levels at times. This is due to a reoccuring Southern 
Hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective location.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values during 5 
Apr UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Apr    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr    41    Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr    45    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mixed throughout 
the Australian region during 4 Apr. They were mildly depressed 
in low latitude regions, but near monthly predicted levels at 
the mid and high latitude stations. Conditions are expected to 
be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values today, 5 
Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.