[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 13 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the
last 24 hours. As anticipated the solar wind stream remained
strong due to the coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed gradually
decreased from around 600 km/s to around 500 during the UT day
today. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) mostly varied
between +/-4 nT today. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
moderate to strong for the next three days due to coronal hole
effect. Very Low solar activity may be expected for the next
three days with some possibility of C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 32332211
Cocos Island 6 22322201
Darwin 9 32332202
Townsville 9 32332112
Learmonth 8 22332211
Alice Springs 8 22332202
Norfolk Island 8 32331111
Culgoora 7 22332111
Camden 10 22442111
Gingin 11 32343211
Canberra 6 22332100
Melbourne 12 32442211
Launceston 17 33453212
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Macquarie Island 21 33464201
Casey 16 44433222
Mawson 31 44543336
Davis 15 33------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 62 (Active)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 87 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 53 3565 5744
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 25 Unsettled to Active
14 Sep 18 Unsettled to Active
15 Sep 22 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: As anticipated the high speed solar wind stream from
the coronal hole kept the geomagnetic activity enhanced today
(UT day 12 September) mostly up to unsettled and active levels.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
14 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mild to significant MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions have been observed over the last 24 hours due
to very low levels of ionising radiation and increased geomagnetic
activity. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected from 13
to 15 September due to expected continued enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels and very low levels of ionising radiation during
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 8 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
14 Sep 10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
15 Sep 8 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 11 September
and is current for 11-13 Sep. Mild to significant MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
in AUS/NZ regions due to very low levels of ionising radiation
and increased geomagnetic activity. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected from 13 to 15 September due to expected continued
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels and very low levels
of ionising radiation during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 611 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 259000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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