[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 12 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the
last 24 hours. As anticipated the solar wind stream got strengthened
significantly due to the coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed
increased from around 450 km/s (0600UT) to around 680 km/s by
1200UT and stayed above 600 km/s for the rest of the UT day.
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) mostly varied between
+/-10 nT. Bz stayed negative up to around -17 nT between 0600
and 0900 UT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain strong over
the next 24 to 48 hours. Very Low solar activity may be expected
for the next three days with some possibility of C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Major
Storm, Isolated severe storm periods recorded at high latitudes
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 35 34555622
Cocos Island 32 23555612
Darwin 27 24554522
Townsville 29 34554532
Learmonth 33 33555622
Alice Springs 30 24555522
Norfolk Island 27 44553521
Culgoora 27 24554522
Camden 31 24554622
Gingin 55 33666733
Canberra 25 23554521
Melbourne 42 24665622
Launceston 44 34665623
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 73 24876622
Casey 32 34553633
Mawson 61 34574736
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 64 (Active)
Melbourne 95 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 61
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3111 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 40 Active to Major Storm
13 Sep 25 Active to Minor Storm
14 Sep 18 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 11 September
and is current for 11-12 Sep. As anticipated the high speed solar
wind stream from the coronal hole did increase the geomagnetic
activity today (UT day 11 September). This effect proved to be
stronger than anticipated. Geomagnetic activity reached up to
major storm levels and even some severe storm periods were also
recorded at some high latitude locations. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to stay at active to major storm levels on 12 September,
active to minor storm levels on 13 September and then possibly
decline to active down to unsettled levels on 14 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
13 Sep Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor
14 Sep Fair Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Mild to significant MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours due to very
low levels of ionising radiation and increased geomagnetic activity.
Nearly similar HF conditions expected from 12 to 13 September
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period. Slight improvements in HF conditions may be possible
on 14 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 0 20 to 50% below predicted monthly values
13 Sep 5 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
14 Sep 10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 11 September
and is current for 11-13 Sep. Mild to significant MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
in AUS/NZ regions due to very low levels of ionising radiation
and increased geomagnetic activity. Nearly similar HF conditions
expected from 12 to 13 September due to expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. Slight improvements
in HF conditions may be possible on 14 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 67800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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