[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 08 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 9 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
last 24 hours with no notable solar flare. As anticipated, the
earthward directed solar wind stream remained strong throughout
the UT day today, showing a gradual decline. Solar wind speed
decreased from around 620 km/s to 440 km/s today. The Bz component
varied mostly between +/-10 nT during this period, staying northwards
for relatively longer periods of time. Solar wind stream is expected
to further weaken over the next two days with the possibility
of gaining some strength again on the third day as the effect
of another coronal hole may start from the third day. Very low
levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet to Active
with isolated minor storm periods
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 43312212
Cocos Island 8 33222122
Darwin 11 43313122
Townsville 12 43323222
Learmonth 9 33312212
Alice Springs 10 33313222
Norfolk Island 9 33312122
Culgoora 9 33312212
Camden 10 43312212
Gingin 11 43312213
Canberra 6 32312101
Melbourne 10 43312212
Launceston 11 43313212
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 44202201
Casey 16 34522123
Mawson 57 85523236
Davis 77 73------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 45 2443 4765
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Sep 6 Quiet
11 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Due to the anticipated effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole (along with a possible component
from a CME observed on the 4th of September) the geomagnetic
activity remained elevated to Active and Unsettled levels through
most parts of the UT day today (8 September). Isolated periods
of minor storm and some short periods of major storms were also
recorded at high latitudes. As the solar wind stream has shown
significant weakening and it is continuing to decline, along
with the Bz staying mostly positive, the geomagnetic activity
may be expected to further decrease to Unsettled to Quiet levels
on 9 September. Mostly Quiet conditions are likely on 10 September.
Geomagnetic activity may again show some increase, possibly to
Unsettled levels on 11 September as a coronal hole is expected
to take a geoeffective position by that day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Fair Fair Fair
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation and effect
of an increase in geomagnetic activity levels, mild to significant
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF conditions may be observed
on 9 September with the possibility of slight improvements on
10 September. HF conditions may again further deteriorate on
11 September due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity
from that day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 30 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
10 Sep 40 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
11 Sep 35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation and effect
of an increase in geomagnetic activity levels, mild to significant
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Nearly similar
HF conditions may be observed on 9 September with the possibility
of slight improvements on 10 September. HF conditions may again
further deteriorate on 11 September due to an expected rise in
geomagnetic activity from that day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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