[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 15 issued 2332 UT on 07 Sep 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 8 09:32:52 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Sep             09 Sep             10 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: The solar activity remained at very low levels over 
the last 24 hours with no notable solar flare. As anticipated, 
the earthward solar wind stream became stronger due the effect 
of a coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased from around 460 
km/s to over 600 km/s at one stage today and is currently around 
550 km/s. The Bz component varied mostly between +6 and -12 nT 
during this period, staying southwards for relatively longer 
periods of time. Solar wind stream is expected to remain strong 
for one more day and then show a gradual weakening over the following 
two days. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      20   22334543
      Cocos Island        15   22223444
      Darwin              18   22224543
      Townsville          21   23334543
      Learmonth           19   22224544
      Alice Springs       20   22224553
      Norfolk Island      15   22323443
      Culgoora            21   23334543
      Camden              21   23334543
      Gingin              22   22224554
      Canberra            14   12233443
      Melbourne           19   22334444
      Launceston          24   23344544
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    56   13466764
      Casey               21   44333434
      Mawson              51   44534576
      Davis               76   33533496

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             43                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   3322 4242     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Sep    20    Active
09 Sep    12    Unsettled to Active
10 Sep     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Due to the anticipated effect of a high speed solar 
wind stream from a coronal hole the geomagnetic activity increased 
to minor storm levels during the last 24 hours. The continued 
effect of this coronal hole may keep geomagnetic activity enhanced 
to mostly active levels with isolated minor storm periods on 
8 September. Activity is then expected to gradually decline from 
active to unsettled levels on 9 September and further down to 
unsettled to quiet levels on 10 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Fair-poor
09 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
10 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation and effect 
of an increase in geomagnetic activity levels, mild to significant 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions were observed 
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF conditions may be observed 
on 8 September with the possibility of some improvements through 
the following two days thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Sep    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      46
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Sep    30    15 to 40% below predicted monthly values
09 Sep    40    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
10 Sep    45    10 to 25% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 6 September 
and is current for 6-8 Sep. Due to very low levels of ionising 
radiation and effect of an increase in geomagnetic activity levels, 
mild to significant MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
were observed over the last 24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be observed on 8 September with the 
possibility of some improvements through the following two days 
thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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