[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 7 09:30:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 6 Sep, with no notable solar flares. Based on our model
runs, it is expected that the partial-halo coronal mass ejection
(CME) produced by the disappearing solar filament (DSF) observed
at 04/1709 UT from the southeast sector (~S17E10) will not affect
earth. No earth-directed CMEs were observed on the SOHO LASCO
coronagrams images for the UT day. The 2-day outlook (7-8 Sep)
is for very low solar activity with a small chance of C class
flares as new regions rotate into view. During the last 24 hours,
the solar wind gradually increased from 400 to 520 km/s. This
is due to the arrival of the fast solar wind streams from the
northern coronal hole. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between
-/+6 nT and Bt reached levels of nearly 10 nT in the past 24
hours. Expect solar winds to remain at these levels for the next
two days (7-8 Sep) as the effects of the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 12223232
Cocos Island 7 12122232
Darwin 9 22223232
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 8 12223232
Alice Springs 8 12223232
Norfolk Island 6 -2222221
Culgoora 6 12222222
Camden 7 12223222
Gingin 11 22223243
Canberra 6 12222221
Melbourne 8 12223232
Launceston 10 22323232
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 18 12355231
Casey 17 34433233
Mawson 36 34434374
Davis 84 93444374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2333 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 12 Unsettled and at time active
08 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
the last 24 hours (UT day 6 Sep). The Australian Dst-index reached
levels of -34 nT at ~06/1350 UT. The observed variations in the
geomagnetic activity over the last 24 hours is due to the arrival
of the fast solar wind stream from the Northern Solar Hemisphere
coronal hole. With the solar wind speed expected to remain strong
over the next day, a favourable interplanetary magnetic field
orientation of prolonged southward Bz can lead to active conditions.
Conditions are expected to trend back to mostly quiet levels
after few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Globally, conditions for HF radio wave propagation are
depressed. The foF2 values over the Australian region are generally
10%-40% below long term predicted monthly values. Propagation
conditions are expected to trend back towards near monthly predicted
values with approaching September equinox.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
08 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 6 September
and is current for 6-8 Sep. Moderately depressed ionospheric
conditions were observed across all AUS/NZ regions during the
last 24 hours (UT day 6 Sep). These depressions are after-effects
of active geomagnetic conditions experienced on UT day 4 Sep
associated with coronal hole (CH 95) and the current moderately
active conditions associated with arrival of the fast solar wind
stream from the northern coronal hole (CH 96). HF conditions
are expected to remain depressed over the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 94500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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