[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 15 issued 2351 UT on 09 Sep 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 10 09:51:04 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the
last 24 hours with only minor B-class events observed. Solar
wind speed ranged between 400km/s to 450km/s over the UT day.
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was southward for the
the majority of the UT day, ranging between -5nT and -10nT between
01UT-20UT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at Moderate
levels over the next 24 hours. An equatorial positioned coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream is expected to arrive in the
next 12 to 36 hours. Very Low solar activity expected for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 24 23454344
Cocos Island 16 22433343
Darwin 20 22354334
Townsville 21 23454333
Learmonth 25 32355344
Alice Springs 25 23455334
Norfolk Island 22 23553333
Culgoora 26 23464343
Camden 28 23464344
Gingin 34 32465454
Canberra 20 22454333
Melbourne 39 23574444
Launceston 46 33575454
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 69 34865653
Casey 21 43433235
Mawson 68 66533477
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 39
Planetary 57
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 5621 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 18 Active
11 Sep 20 Active
12 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Minor storm levels observed over the last 24
hours due to lengthy sustained southward Bz. Unsettled to Active
conditions expected for 10Sep-11Sep with possible Minor Storm
periods due to anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. Unsettled conditions for 12Sep with possible
Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
11 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation and increased
geomagnetic activity, mild to significant MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions were observed over the last 24
hours. Similar HF conditions expected for the next 24 hours with
further reduction in MUF's possible for 11Sep-12Sep due to increased
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
11 Sep 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Sep 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to significant MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions Poor ionospheric support for
Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions expected for 10Sep.
HF conditions may again further deteriorate on 11-12 September
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 29100 K Bz: 9 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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