[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 28 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 29 10:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Oct             30 Oct             31 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low with only minor C-class flares 
observed, mainly from AR2436 (N08W74) and AR2437 (S21W60). A 
number of solar radio noise events were observed throughout the 
UT day. A weak East-directed CME was observed after 27/2330UT. 
There was a slow filament lift-off in the SE quadrant during 
the first half of the UT day. Solar wind speed declined from 
350 to 300 km/s. The IMF Bz component was neutral to North biased 
with sustained periods of mild South bias 00-02 and 19-21UT. 
Expect low solar activity next three days with a chance of isolated 
C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               2   21000011
      Townsville           1   11000010
      Learmonth            0   11000000
      Alice Springs        0   11000000
      Norfolk Island       0   10000001
      Culgoora             5   2211-2--
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Camden               1   11000011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                7   34210101
      Mawson               3   23100110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0000 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct    12    Unsettled
31 Oct    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field remained Quiet, with Unsettled 
periods observed at high latitudes only 00-06UT. Expect similar 
conditions day one of the forecast period. North and South polar 
coronal holes and a small coronal hole in the NW quadrant may 
become geoeffective over the next three days, bringing Unsettled 
intervals.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Oct    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed 20% around local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Darwin depressed 20% around local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Oct    60    Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct    60    Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near or slightly below predicted 
monthly values with some variability Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Expect similar conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed 
periods Antarctic region with elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    38300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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