[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 15 issued 2332 UT on 29 Oct 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 30 10:32:08 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed over the UT day 
Oct 29. Type II and Type IV radio sweeps were reported around 
0220UT with an associated weak CME observed in subsequent LASCO 
imagery. The event appears to have originated beyond the SW limb 
and is unlikely to be geoeffective, although a minor solar wind 
disturbance is possible. Solar wind energetic particle fluxes 
became elevated following this event and will remain mildly elevated 
day one of the forecast period. Other solar wind parameters remained 
at nominal levels throughout the UT day. The IMF Bz component 
was mostly neutral to mildly Northward with brief fluctuations 
to mild Southward bias. An anticipated solar sector boundary 
crossing on day one of the forecast period is expected to produce 
mild to moderate solar wind disturbance persisting into days 
two and three.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Cocos Island         1   11100001
      Darwin               2   11111011
      Townsville           3   11112012
      Learmonth            3   11121002
      Alice Springs        1   00011011
      Norfolk Island       2   1011101-
      Culgoora            11   2233--3-
      Gingin               3   10112012
      Camden               2   10111011
      Canberra             1   00111001
      Launceston           3   10212012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     3   00123000
      Casey                7   32321012
      Mawson               5   20121123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0100 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct    12    Unsettled
01 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field remained Quiet at all 
latitudes. Anticipated solar wind disturbance on day one of the 
forecast period is expected to result in Unsettled to occasionally 
Active geomagnetic conditions persisting into days two and three 
of the period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0540UT 29/10, Ended at 1445UT 29/10
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1530UT 29/10, Ended at 1610UT 29/10
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0420UT 29/10, Ended at 0925UT 29/10

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Oct    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Briefly depressed 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Darwin enhanced 15% local night.
      Townsville depressed 15% around local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct    65    Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct    60    Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values 
with some variability Equatorial/N Aus regions. Expect similar 
conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed periods Antarctic 
region with elevated proton fluxes day one and occasional geomagnetic 
activity days two and three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    27000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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