[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 28 10:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar X-ray activity remains low. The largest event 
of the period was a long duration flare peaking at C3.2 level 
at 1429UT with origin at S09W81. A narrow W-directed CME probably 
in association with this flare was first visible in LASCO C3 
imagery after 14UT. W limb location suggests this is unlikely 
to be geoeffective. Small filament eruptions were observed in 
the NW quadrant around 03UT and in the NE quadrant around 22UT. 
Solar wind speed declined gradually from 400 to 350 km/s. The 
IMF Bz component was mildly Southward for most of the UT day. 
Recurrence suggests solar wind parameters will become elevated 
over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11102011
      Cocos Island         2   01001012
      Darwin               2   11002001
      Townsville           3   20102021
      Learmonth            3   11112012
      Alice Springs        1   10002001
      Norfolk Island       1   00002011
      Culgoora             6   212--2--
      Gingin               2   10102012
      Camden               3   11112011
      Canberra             0   00002000
      Launceston           3   11112011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   00103000
      Casey                8   13313013
      Mawson              12   22112045

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes with isolated Unsettled to briefly Active intervals 
at high latitudes only. Expect mostly Quiet conditions at low 
to mid latitudes day one. Increasing solar wind disturbance is 
possible days two to three bringing Unsettled conditions at mid 
to high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Oct    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct    75    Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct    75    Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values. 
Daytime enhancements observed Equatorial region. Expect similar 
conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed periods Antarctic 
region with elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    56900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list