[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 28 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar X-ray activity remains low. The largest event
of the period was a long duration flare peaking at C3.2 level
at 1429UT with origin at S09W81. A narrow W-directed CME probably
in association with this flare was first visible in LASCO C3
imagery after 14UT. W limb location suggests this is unlikely
to be geoeffective. Small filament eruptions were observed in
the NW quadrant around 03UT and in the NE quadrant around 22UT.
Solar wind speed declined gradually from 400 to 350 km/s. The
IMF Bz component was mildly Southward for most of the UT day.
Recurrence suggests solar wind parameters will become elevated
over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11102011
Cocos Island 2 01001012
Darwin 2 11002001
Townsville 3 20102021
Learmonth 3 11112012
Alice Springs 1 10002001
Norfolk Island 1 00002011
Culgoora 6 212--2--
Gingin 2 10102012
Camden 3 11112011
Canberra 0 00002000
Launceston 3 11112011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 00103000
Casey 8 13313013
Mawson 12 22112045
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with isolated Unsettled to briefly Active intervals
at high latitudes only. Expect mostly Quiet conditions at low
to mid latitudes day one. Increasing solar wind disturbance is
possible days two to three bringing Unsettled conditions at mid
to high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values.
Daytime enhancements observed Equatorial region. Expect similar
conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed periods Antarctic
region with elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 56900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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