[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 27 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day Oct 26. A C2 
level flare was observed in AR2437 (S21W23) at 1029UT. A solar 
filament lift-off occurred during the mid-part of the UT day 
near S55W45. No Earth-directed CME's were observed over the period. 
Expect continuing low activity days one to three with the chance 
of isolated C- to M-class flares. Solar wind speed declined gradually 
from 450 to 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly mildly 
Northward. Solar wind speed is expected to increase to moderate 
levels days two to three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   21100001
      Townsville           2   21100011
      Learmonth            3   21200002
      Alice Springs        2   21100001
      Norfolk Island       1   11100011
      Culgoora             7   212-2--3
      Gingin               1   10100001
      Camden               3   21111011
      Canberra             0   10100000
      Launceston           2   11200011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100010
      Casey               11   44420000
      Mawson               8   32312203

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2131 3101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Oct     5    Quiet
28 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels with isolated 
Unsettled periods observed early in the UT day at high latitudes 
only. Expect Quiet conditions day one. Mildly elevated solar 
wind parameters may bring occasionally Unsettled periods days 
two and three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Oct    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced to 15% local day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced to 15% local day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values. 
Expect similar conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed 
periods Antarctic region days two and three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    8.9 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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