[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 26 10:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Minor flaring was noted from active region 2434(West 
Limb) during the UT day, 25 Oct. All active regions on the visible 
solar disk, including the largest region 2436(N09W32)remain stable 
during the period. Expect Low solar activity next three days 
with a slight chance of an isolated M-class event. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. Solar wind speeds ranged between 420-550Km/s 
and are presently above 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly 
northward. Mildly elevated solar wind speeds are expected to 
persist today 26 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21213211
      Cocos Island         6   21213211
      Darwin               7   31213211
      Townsville           6   22213211
      Learmonth            7   22223212
      Alice Springs        6   21213211
      Norfolk Island       6   21213211
      Culgoora             8   211--33-
      Gingin               7   31213212
      Camden               6   22213211
      Canberra             3   21202101
      Launceston           8   22313212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     4   21311100
      Casey               22   55532212
      Mawson              11   33313322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           26   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   2330 1143     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Oct     7    Quiet
28 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions remained Quiet to Unsettled 
on 25 Oct and are expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled today,26 
Oct. Conditions are expected to trend back to mostly Quiet levels 
27-28 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Oct    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct    65    Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct    65    Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly Normal ionospheric conditions were observed across 
all AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours, UT day 25 Oct. Mostly 
similar ionospheric conditions are expected over the next 3 days. 
Space Weather Services is currently not receiving data from many 
stations. This technical fault is under investigation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    95000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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