[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 25 10:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Oct             26 Oct             27 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low for the UT day, 24Oct. Minor 
flaring was noted from active region 2434(S11W75) during the 
UT day. Region 2436 remains the largest region on the visible 
solar disk, but is decaying. All other active regions remain 
relatively stable. Expect Low solar activity next three days 
with a slight chance of an isolated M-class event. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. A moderate shock was observed in the solar 
wind at 1830UT in association with the anticipated arrival of 
a CME observed on 22 Oct. Solar wind speeds reached approximately 
520km/s and are presently above 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component 
was mostly northward with a deep brief excursion to -10nT at 
~~ 1930UT. Mildly elevated solar wind speeds are expected to persist 
today 25 Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22211132
      Cocos Island         5   22111031
      Darwin               6   22201132
      Townsville           7   22211133
      Learmonth            6   22211132
      Alice Springs        5   22201032
      Norfolk Island       6   22200042
      Culgoora            10   23223322
      Gingin               6   32210032
      Camden               8   22311133
      Canberra             4   12201022
      Launceston          10   33311133    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     5   22300022
      Casey               23   45531143
      Mawson              21   44432253

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2000 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Oct    20    Quiet to Active.
26 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions remained mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled on 24 Oct. Although solar wind speed increased, 
the IMF Bz component maintained a moderately northward bias for 
most of the UT day, limiting magnetic connection. With the solar 
wind speed expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours, 
a favourable interplanetary magnetic field orientation of prolonged 
southward Bz can lead to Active and Minor Storm levels in the 
Southern regions of Australia and the Antarctic. Conditions are 
expected to trend back to mostly Quiet levels on day 3 of the 
forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Oct    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Oct    55    Near predicted monthly values
26 Oct    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 Oct    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly Normal ionospheric conditions were observed across 
all AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours, UT day 24 Oct. Mildly 
degraded HF conditions may be observed during the next few days 
due to low levels of ionising radiation and mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 447 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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