[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 24 10:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23Oct. Minor
flaring was noted from active region 2436 during the UT day.
All active regions on the visible solar disk are either stable
or declining. Expect Low solar activity next three days with
the chance of isolated C- to M-class flares. Solar wind speed
was mostly steady at around 420 km/s. The Bz component has been
weak and predominantly northward. ACE EPAM data indicates an
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 23/1845UT. A glancing
blow from the CME associated with the 22/0340UT long duration
C4 flare may arrive at Earth late today, 24 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21112222
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 4 21111122
Townsville 5 21112222
Learmonth 6 22112222
Alice Springs 5 21111222
Norfolk Island 3 21011112
Culgoora 8 2-3-2-22
Gingin 6 22112222
Camden 5 22112212
Canberra 2 10001112
Launceston 6 21112223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 20013212
Casey 20 44532233
Mawson 17 43223344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1020 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 15 Quiet to Active.
25 Oct 20 Quiet to Active.
26 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during the UT day, 23
Oct. A minor geomagnetic storm may occur later today, 24 Oct
due to a possible glancing blow from the CME launched on 22/0312UT.
The outlook for 24-25 Oct is Quiet to Active with possible isolated
periods of Minor Storm levels in the Southern regions of Australia
and the Antarctic. Expect the geomagnetic activity to return
Quiet to Unsettled conditions on 26 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some recovery observed at all latitudes from the degraded
propagation conditions observed over the past week.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly Normal ionospheric conditions were observed across
all AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours, UT day 23 Oct. Possible
elevated geomagnetic activity late today, 24 Oct may negatively
impact HF propagation conditions, mainly in the Antarctic region
for the next few days. Space Weather Services is currently not
receiving data from many stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 63400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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