[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 24 10:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23Oct. Minor 
flaring was noted from active region 2436 during the UT day. 
All active regions on the visible solar disk are either stable 
or declining. Expect Low solar activity next three days with 
the chance of isolated C- to M-class flares. Solar wind speed 
was mostly steady at around 420 km/s. The Bz component has been 
weak and predominantly northward. ACE EPAM data indicates an 
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 23/1845UT. A glancing 
blow from the CME associated with the 22/0340UT long duration 
C4 flare may arrive at Earth late today, 24 Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21112222
      Cocos Island         3   11111111
      Darwin               4   21111122
      Townsville           5   21112222
      Learmonth            6   22112222
      Alice Springs        5   21111222
      Norfolk Island       3   21011112
      Culgoora             8   2-3-2-22
      Gingin               6   22112222
      Camden               5   22112212
      Canberra             2   10001112
      Launceston           6   21112223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     5   20013212
      Casey               20   44532233
      Mawson              17   43223344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1020 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct    15    Quiet to Active.
25 Oct    20    Quiet to Active.
26 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during the UT day, 23 
Oct. A minor geomagnetic storm may occur later today, 24 Oct 
due to a possible glancing blow from the CME launched on 22/0312UT. 
The outlook for 24-25 Oct is Quiet to Active with possible isolated 
periods of Minor Storm levels in the Southern regions of Australia 
and the Antarctic. Expect the geomagnetic activity to return 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions on 26 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Some recovery observed at all latitudes from the degraded 
propagation conditions observed over the past week.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Oct    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct    65    Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Oct    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly Normal ionospheric conditions were observed across 
all AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours, UT day 23 Oct. Possible 
elevated geomagnetic activity late today, 24 Oct may negatively 
impact HF propagation conditions, mainly in the Antarctic region 
for the next few days. Space Weather Services is currently not 
receiving data from many stations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    63400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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