[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 20 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 21 10:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Oct             22 Oct             23 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low for the UT day, 20 Oct. Minor 
flaring was noted from active regions 2436(N09E44) and 2437(S20E46) 
during the UT day. Expect Solar Activity to remain Low with a 
chance for an M class event for the next three days. No new Earthward 
directed CME was launched during 20 Oct. The Earth is presently 
immersed in slow solar wind with a speed of about 375 Km/s. The 
Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-5nT with prolonged 
periods of weak southward Bz at about -2 nT. A coronal hole wind 
stream may arrive at Earth late today, 21 Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21122232
      Cocos Island         5   11111231
      Darwin               5   21122221
      Townsville           8   32222231
      Learmonth            7   21122232
      Alice Springs        7   22222231
      Norfolk Island       5   11122122
      Culgoora             9   211-3332
      Gingin               9   21122342
      Camden               9   2--32231
      Canberra             5   21122221
      Melbourne            8   12232232
      Launceston           9   22232232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    10   11243321
      Casey               12   34322232
      Mawson              27   33222337

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           29   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1200 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Oct    14    Quiet to Active.
22 Oct    12    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to unsettled in the 
Australian region during 20 Oct UT. Expect Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions until the high speed solar wind stream associated 
with the coronal hole impacts Earth late in the UT day, today 
21 Oct, then expect Active conditions with possible isolated 
periods of Minor Storm levels in the Southern regions of Australia 
and the Antarctic.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Oct    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Oct    50    Near predicted monthly values
22 Oct    30    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Oct    30    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: There was some recovery in all regions over the poor 
ionospheric support for HF of the previous week. Elevated geomagnetic 
activity is anticipated late today which may negatively impact 
HF propagation conditions, mainly in the Antarctic region. Space 
Weather Services is currently not receiving data from many stations. 
This technical fault will be rectified as soon as possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    50600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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