[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 15 issued 2331 UT on 19 Oct 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 20 10:31:23 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Oct             21 Oct             22 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low for the UT day, 19 Oct. There 
is potential for C to M-class flare activity next three days. 
No new Earthward directed CME was launched during 19 Oct. The 
Solar wind speed continues to decline over the last 24 hours 
as the influence of the coronal hole subside, currently near 
375km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-4nT with 
prolonged periods of weak southward Bz. A coronal hole wind stream 
onset is anticipated late day two of the forecast period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01102011
      Cocos Island         2   11101011
      Darwin               2   11111011
      Townsville           3   11003011
      Learmonth            2   01211011
      Alice Springs        2   01211011
      Norfolk Island       2   01002012
      Culgoora            12   -2--3--3
      Gingin               2   11111011
      Camden               2   11002011
      Canberra             1   01002001
      Melbourne            2   01211011
      Launceston           3   01103012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     1   00101001
      Casey                7   23321012
      Mawson              11   22222125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             21   3345 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Oct     6    Quiet
21 Oct    12    Quiet to Active.
22 Oct    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet on 19 Oct. 
The Earth is presently immersed in slow solar wind and the geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to remain mostly Quiet today, 20 Oct. 
A coronal hole wind stream onset is anticipated and subsequent 
fast wind is expected to arrive at Earth during 21-22 Oct and 
drive Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Oct      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF 
conditions may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Oct    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Oct    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
21 Oct    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
22 Oct    30    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF radio propagation were depressed throughout the Australian 
region during 19 Oct. Expect depressed MUFs over the next three 
days. A minor geomagnetic storm may occur during 21-22 Oct. This 
may lead to deeper depressions during 22 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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