[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 18 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 19 10:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Oct             20 Oct             21 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low today. Only three low C-class 
flares were observed during this period. The solar wind stream 
became stronger than expectations, with solar wind speed gradually 
increasing from 350 km/s to around 480 km/s during the UT day. 
The Bz component of the IMF mostly varied in the range of +8/-11 
nT until around 1400 UT and then stayed close to the normal value 
for the remaining hours of the day. Moderate levels of solar 
activity with the possibility of more C-class and some M-class 
activities may be expected over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   23353322
      Cocos Island         8   22242220
      Darwin              15   23353321
      Townsville          16   23353322
      Learmonth           17   33353322
      Alice Springs       15   23353321
      Norfolk Island      14   23352222
      Culgoora            12   12252232
      Gingin              20   32363322
      Camden              29   ---6332-
      Canberra            13   23352221
      Melbourne           21   23363332
      Launceston          33   34473333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    36   24475431
      Casey               21   35543222
      Mawson              48   54454656

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           15   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   2222 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Oct    12    Quiet to Active
20 Oct     6    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct    10    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity rose above the expected levels 
today (18 October). Some periods of Minor Storm were observed. 
Due to strong solar wind the geomagnetic conditions may rise 
up to Active levels on 19 October and then gradually decline 
to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 20 October. Further rise to Active 
levels is possible on 21 October due to the possible effect of 
a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole that is expected 
to take a geoeffective position around that time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
20 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF 
conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar 
conditions may be expected for the next three days (19 to 21 
October) with the possibility of relatively slightly better conditions 
on 20 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Oct    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
20 Oct    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
21 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF 
conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions over the last 
24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 
three days (19 to 21 October) with the possibility of relatively 
slightly better conditions on 20 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:   12.2 p/cc  Temp:    32900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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