[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 17 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 18 10:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    2042UT  observed   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar Activity was moderate over the last 24 hours. 
Several C-class and two M1 flares were observed during this period. 
These M1.1 and M1.5 flares peaked respectively at 2023 UT and 
2042 UT. The solar wind stream remained more steady today, with 
solar wind speed staying close to 350 km/s almost the whole UT 
day. The Bz component of the IMF mostly varied in the range of 
+/-5 nT during most parts of the day. Moderate levels of solar 
activity with the possibility of more C-class and some M-class 
activities may be expected over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22133231
      Cocos Island         5   11112231
      Darwin               7   22122231
      Townsville           9   22133231
      Learmonth           10   22133332
      Alice Springs        7   21123231
      Norfolk Island       6   22132121
      Culgoora             7   11123-31
      Gingin              10   11133341
      Camden              16   42-3----
      Canberra             5   21022221
      Melbourne            9   22133231
      Launceston          10   22233331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    15   11245420
      Casey               13   33333232
      Mawson              35   54423371

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2331 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct     7    Mostly Quiet, some Unsettled periods possible
19 Oct     5    Quiet
20 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity was mostly 
at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar 
conditions may be expected on 18 October. Mostly Quiet conditions 
are expected on 19 and 20 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
19 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF 
conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions over the last 
24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on UT day 
18 October due to low levels of ionising radiation. Slight relative 
improvements in HF conditions may be possible on 19 and 20 October 
as the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at Quiet levels 
on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Oct    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
19 Oct    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
20 Oct    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 15 October 
and is current for 16-18 Oct. Minor to mild MUF depressions and 
degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions 
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
on UT day 18 October due to low levels of ionising radiation. 
Slight relative improvements in HF conditions may be possible 
on 19 and 20 October as the geomagnetic activity is expected 
to remain at Quiet levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 386 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    63000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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