[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 17 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1 15/2332UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0617UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar Activity was moderate over the last 24 hours. 
Region 2434(S10E34) produced several C-class flares and two M1.1 
flares during this period. These flares peaked respectively at 
Oct15/2331 UT and Oct16/0616 UT. The solar wind stream showed 
gradual weakening, with solar wind speed slowly decreasing from 
450 to 350 km/s during the UT day today as the effect of the 
coronal hole gradually weakened. The Bz component of the IMF 
mostly stayed negative up to around -5 nT until 9 UT and after 
19 UT. Bz remained mostly positive up to around +5 nT during 
most of the remaining hours of the day. The solar wind stream 
is expected to further weaken over the next 24 hours and remain 
at weaker levels for two days thereafter. Moderate levels of 
solar activity with the possibility of more C-class and some 
M-class activities may be expected over the next three days due 
to the rise in area and complexity of region 2434 and some flares 
possible from the returning regions 2420 and 2422. Region 2420 
(N14) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 
17 Oct. Also, region 2422 (S20) which previously produced M-flare(s) 
is due to return around this date as well.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21113111
      Cocos Island         2   11112000
      Darwin               6   21213112
      Townsville           5   22113111
      Learmonth            5   21213102
      Alice Springs        5   21213101
      Norfolk Island       3   11102111
      Culgoora             6   11122322
      Gingin               4   21112201
      Camden               7   ----2---
      Canberra             2   11102100
      Melbourne            5   12213111
      Launceston           6   22213202    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     5   12203201
      Casey                9   33322212
      Mawson              12   44322211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           13   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   2232 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct    12    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct     8    Quiet
19 Oct     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled 
over the last 24 hours. This was below the anticipated levels. 
Due to the weakening in the effect of a high speed solar wind 
stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may remain mostly 
at Quiet levels for the next three days (17 to 19 October) with 
the possibility Unsettled periods on 17 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
18 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF 
conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar 
conditions may be expected on UT day 17 October due to continued 
expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this 
period and low levels of ionising radiation. Slight relative 
improvements in HF conditions may be possible on 18 and 19 October 
as the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at Quiet levels 
on these days. However, due to continued low levels of ionising 
radiation, HF conditions may not show significant improvements 
even on 18 and 19 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Oct    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct    20    5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
18 Oct    25    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
19 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 15 October 
and is current for 16-18 Oct. Minor to mild MUF depressions and 
degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions 
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
on UT day 17 October due to continued expected slight rise in 
geomagnetic activity levels during this period and low levels 
of ionising radiation. Slight relative improvements in HF conditions 
may be possible on 18 and 19 October as the geomagnetic activity 
is expected to remain at Quiet levels on these days. However, 
due to continued low levels of ionising radiation, HF conditions 
may not show significant improvements even on 18 and 19 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    76700 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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