[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 16 10:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Oct             17 Oct             18 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             120/72

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
2434(S10E48) produced several C-class flares, the largest being 
a C3.9 flare that peaked at 1838 UT. As anticipated, the solar 
wind stream remained strong today, with solar wind speed staying 
between 420 and 480 km/s during most parts of the UT day due 
to the continued effect of the coronal hole. The Bz component 
of the IMF mostly stayed negative up to around-7 nT over this 
period. The solar wind stream is expected to remain strong for 
one more day due to the coronal hole effect. Low to moderate 
levels of solar activity with the possibility of more C-class 
and possibly isolated M-class activities may be expected over 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Mostly Quiet 
with some Unsettled periods.

Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221112
      Cocos Island         4   22111111
      Darwin               4   21121112
      Townsville           6   22231112
      Learmonth            5   22221112
      Alice Springs        4   12121112
      Norfolk Island       4   21121111
      Culgoora             9   21133322
      Gingin               6   21221222
      Camden               4   -----112
      Canberra             3   -2121011
      Melbourne            7   22232112
      Launceston           8   22332122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    12   21353211
      Casey               19   55332222
      Mawson              26   44333336

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           47   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20   5444 4232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Oct    17    Quiet to Active, isolated minor storm periods 
                possible
17 Oct    12    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct     8    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels with 
some Unsettled periods over the last 24 hours. This was below 
the anticipated levels. Due to the continued effect of a high 
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity 
may remain enhanced to mostly Unsettled to Active levels with 
the possibility of isolated Minor Storm periods on UT day 16 
October. Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline 
to Unsettled and then to Quiet levels over two days thereafter 
(on 17 and 18 October).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
17 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
18 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar 
conditions may be expected on UT day 16 October due to continued 
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period 
and low levels of ionising radiation. Slight relative improvements 
in HF conditions may be possible on 17 and 18 October as the 
geomagnetic activity is expected to slowly decline over this 
period. However, due to continued low levels of ionising radiation, 
HF conditions may not show significant improvements even on 17 
and 18 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Oct     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Oct     6    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
17 Oct    10    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Oct    12    5 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions over the last 
24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on UT day 
16 October due to continued expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels during this period and low levels of ionising radiation. 
Slight relative improvements in HF conditions may be possible 
on 17 and 18 October as the geomagnetic activity is expected 
to slowly decline over this period. However, due to continued 
low levels of ionising radiation, HF conditions may not show 
significant improvements even on 17 and 18 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 500 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   128000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list