[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 16 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 120/72
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2434(S10E48) produced several C-class flares, the largest being
a C3.9 flare that peaked at 1838 UT. As anticipated, the solar
wind stream remained strong today, with solar wind speed staying
between 420 and 480 km/s during most parts of the UT day due
to the continued effect of the coronal hole. The Bz component
of the IMF mostly stayed negative up to around-7 nT over this
period. The solar wind stream is expected to remain strong for
one more day due to the coronal hole effect. Low to moderate
levels of solar activity with the possibility of more C-class
and possibly isolated M-class activities may be expected over
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Mostly Quiet
with some Unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22221112
Cocos Island 4 22111111
Darwin 4 21121112
Townsville 6 22231112
Learmonth 5 22221112
Alice Springs 4 12121112
Norfolk Island 4 21121111
Culgoora 9 21133322
Gingin 6 21221222
Camden 4 -----112
Canberra 3 -2121011
Melbourne 7 22232112
Launceston 8 22332122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 12 21353211
Casey 19 55332222
Mawson 26 44333336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20 5444 4232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 17 Quiet to Active, isolated minor storm periods
possible
17 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels with
some Unsettled periods over the last 24 hours. This was below
the anticipated levels. Due to the continued effect of a high
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity
may remain enhanced to mostly Unsettled to Active levels with
the possibility of isolated Minor Storm periods on UT day 16
October. Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline
to Unsettled and then to Quiet levels over two days thereafter
(on 17 and 18 October).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
17 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected on UT day 16 October due to continued
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period
and low levels of ionising radiation. Slight relative improvements
in HF conditions may be possible on 17 and 18 October as the
geomagnetic activity is expected to slowly decline over this
period. However, due to continued low levels of ionising radiation,
HF conditions may not show significant improvements even on 17
and 18 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 6 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
17 Oct 10 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Oct 12 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions over the last
24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on UT day
16 October due to continued expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels during this period and low levels of ionising radiation.
Slight relative improvements in HF conditions may be possible
on 17 and 18 October as the geomagnetic activity is expected
to slowly decline over this period. However, due to continued
low levels of ionising radiation, HF conditions may not show
significant improvements even on 17 and 18 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 500 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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