[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 15 10:30:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 115/66
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2434(S08E60) produced two C-class flares, the largest being a
C1.8 flare that peaked at 1338 UT. As anticipated, the solar
wind stream remained strong today, with solar wind speed staying
between 450 and 550 km/s during most parts of the UT day due
to the continued effect of the coronal hole. The Bz component
of the IMF mostly varied between +5/-7 nT over this period, staying
southwards for relatively longer periods of time. The solar wind
stream is expected to remain strong for the next two days due
to the coronal hole effect. Low levels of solar activity with
the possibility of more C-class and possibly isolated M-class
activities may be expected over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Active,
isolated minor storm periods
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 22343322
Cocos Island 10 22-33330
Darwin 11 22343222
Townsville 14 32353221
Learmonth 16 33344322
Alice Springs 14 22353222
Norfolk Island 11 22343221
Culgoora 10 22133323
Gingin 16 23344332
Camden 14 333432-2
Canberra - --------
Melbourne 14 33343322
Launceston 20 33454322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 26 43365321
Casey 14 33433232
Mawson 38 56544353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21 2444 2444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 20 Mostly Quiet to Active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
16 Oct 20 Mostly Quiet to Active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
17 Oct 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 13 October
and is current for 14-15 Oct. Geomagnetic activity was mostly
at Quiet to Active levels over the last 24 hours with isolated
minor storm periods recorded at some high latitude locations.
Due to the continued effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced
to mostly Unsettled to Active levels with the possibility of
isolated Minor Storm periods for the next 2 days (UT days 15
and 16 October). Quiet to Active levels of geomagnetic activity
may be expected on the third day (UT day 17 October) as the effect
of the coronal hole is expected to start weakening around that
time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 Oct Fair Fair Poor-fair
17 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next two days (UT days 15
and 16 October) due to continued expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period and low levels of ionising
radiation. Slight relative improvements in HF conditions may
be possible on 17 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 4 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct 4 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
17 Oct 6 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 13 October
and is current for 13-15 Oct. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected for the next two days (UT days 15 and 16 October)
due to continued expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels
during this period and low levels of ionising radiation. Slight
relative improvements in HF conditions may be possible on 17
October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 531 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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