[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 15 10:30:25 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Oct             16 Oct             17 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             115/66

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
2434(S08E60) produced two C-class flares, the largest being a 
C1.8 flare that peaked at 1338 UT. As anticipated, the solar 
wind stream remained strong today, with solar wind speed staying 
between 450 and 550 km/s during most parts of the UT day due 
to the continued effect of the coronal hole. The Bz component 
of the IMF mostly varied between +5/-7 nT over this period, staying 
southwards for relatively longer periods of time. The solar wind 
stream is expected to remain strong for the next two days due 
to the coronal hole effect. Low levels of solar activity with 
the possibility of more C-class and possibly isolated M-class 
activities may be expected over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Active, 
isolated minor storm periods

Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22343322
      Cocos Island        10   22-33330
      Darwin              11   22343222
      Townsville          14   32353221
      Learmonth           16   33344322
      Alice Springs       14   22353222
      Norfolk Island      11   22343221
      Culgoora            10   22133323
      Gingin              16   23344332
      Camden              14   333432-2
      Canberra             -   --------
      Melbourne           14   33343322
      Launceston          20   33454322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    26   43365321
      Casey               14   33433232
      Mawson              38   56544353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           40   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             21   2444 2444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Oct    20    Mostly Quiet to Active, isolated minor storm 
                periods possible.
16 Oct    20    Mostly Quiet to Active, isolated minor storm 
                periods possible.
17 Oct    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 13 October 
and is current for 14-15 Oct. Geomagnetic activity was mostly 
at Quiet to Active levels over the last 24 hours with isolated 
minor storm periods recorded at some high latitude locations. 
Due to the continued effect of a high speed solar wind stream 
from a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced 
to mostly Unsettled to Active levels with the possibility of 
isolated Minor Storm periods for the next 2 days (UT days 15 
and 16 October). Quiet to Active levels of geomagnetic activity 
may be expected on the third day (UT day 17 October) as the effect 
of the coronal hole is expected to start weakening around that 
time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
16 Oct      Fair           Fair           Poor-fair
17 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar 
conditions may be expected for the next two days (UT days 15 
and 16 October) due to continued expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period and low levels of ionising 
radiation. Slight relative improvements in HF conditions may 
be possible on 17 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Oct     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Oct     4    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct     4    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
17 Oct     6    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 13 October 
and is current for 13-15 Oct. Minor to moderate MUF depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ 
regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may 
be expected for the next two days (UT days 15 and 16 October) 
due to continued expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
during this period and low levels of ionising radiation. Slight 
relative improvements in HF conditions may be possible on 17 
October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 531 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   179000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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