[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 14 10:30:25 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Oct             15 Oct             16 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
2434(S08E74) produced several C-class flares, the largest being 
a C9.5 flare that peaked at 1411 UT. As anticipated, the solar 
wind stream remained strong today, with solar wind speed staying 
between 500 and 600 km/s during most parts of the UT day due 
to the continued effect of the coronal hole. The Bz component 
of the IMF mostly varied between +/-7 nT over this period, staying 
southwards for relatively longer periods of time. The solar wind 
stream is expected to remain strong for the next two days due 
to the coronal hole effect. Low levels of solar activity with 
the possibility of more C-class and possibly isolated M-class 
activities may be expected over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   22343433
      Cocos Island        12   12333333
      Darwin              13   22333423
      Townsville          15   23333433
      Learmonth           17   22343434
      Alice Springs       14   22333433
      Norfolk Island      13   12342333
      Culgoora            13   21342333
      Gingin              19   22343444
      Camden              17   2--43433
      Canberra             -   --------
      Melbourne           18   13443433
      Launceston          18   23443433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    31   23654533
      Casey               20   44342334
      Mawson              51   35544467

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              44   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           63   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             24   0235 3554     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Oct    25    Mostly Unsettled to Active, isolated minor storm 
                periods possible
15 Oct    25    Mostly Unsettled to Active, isolated minor storm 
                periods possible
16 Oct    25    Mostly Unsettled to Active, isolated minor storm 
                periods possible

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels over 
the last 24 hours. Due to the continued effect of a high speed 
solar wind stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may 
remain enhanced to Unsettled to Active levels with the possibility 
of isolated Minor Storm periods for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
15 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
16 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar 
conditions may be expected for the next three days due to continued 
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period 
and low levels of ionising radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Oct     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Oct     4    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
15 Oct     4    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct     4    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 13 October 
and is current for 13-15 Oct. Minor to moderate MUF depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ 
regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may 
be expected for the next three days due to continued expected 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period and low 
levels of ionising radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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