[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 13 10:30:35 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Oct             14 Oct             15 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low for the UT day, 12 October with 
a C1.2 class X-ray flare at 1748UT. As anticipated, the solar 
wind speed showed a gradual increase over the last 24 hours due 
to the effect of a coronal hole taking geoeffective position. 
Solar wind speed increased from 450 to 520 km/s over the last 
24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF mostly varied between +6/-8 
nT over this period, staying southwards for relatively longer 
periods of time. Further strengthening in solar wind stream is 
expected due to the coronal hole effect over the next 24 hours 
and then remain strong for another 24 to 48 hours. Expect solar 
activity to remain Very Low to Low for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   12243333
      Cocos Island        11   12232432
      Darwin              12   22243332
      Townsville          13   22343332
      Learmonth           17   12253433
      Alice Springs       12   12243332
      Norfolk Island       9   12242222
      Culgoora            12   31233333
      Gingin              18   12253443
      Camden              16   1235-333
      Canberra             1   01------
      Melbourne           17   13353333
      Launceston          17   13353333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    36   23375531
      Casey               26   45443434
      Mawson              51   34333757

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           27   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3222 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active
14 Oct    25    Unsettled to Minor Storm
15 Oct    25    Unsettled to minor storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 11 October 
and is current for 12-13 Oct. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
to Active levels over the last 24 hours. Further gradual rise 
in geomagnetic activity levels may be expected during the next 
three days as the solar wind stream from the coronal hole is 
expected to get stronger over 13 October and then stay strong 
on 14 and 15 October. Geomagnetic conditions may rise up to Active 
levels on 13 October. Isolated Minor Storm condition may be observed 
on 14 and 15 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
14 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
15 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed over 
the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
on 13 October with the possibility of further MUF depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions on 14 and 15 October due to 
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Oct    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Oct    15    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Oct     7    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
15 Oct     7    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in the 
Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected on 13 October with the possibility of further 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions on 14 and 15 
October due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels during 
this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:38%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    68600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list