[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 13 10:30:35 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low for the UT day, 12 October with
a C1.2 class X-ray flare at 1748UT. As anticipated, the solar
wind speed showed a gradual increase over the last 24 hours due
to the effect of a coronal hole taking geoeffective position.
Solar wind speed increased from 450 to 520 km/s over the last
24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF mostly varied between +6/-8
nT over this period, staying southwards for relatively longer
periods of time. Further strengthening in solar wind stream is
expected due to the coronal hole effect over the next 24 hours
and then remain strong for another 24 to 48 hours. Expect solar
activity to remain Very Low to Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 12243333
Cocos Island 11 12232432
Darwin 12 22243332
Townsville 13 22343332
Learmonth 17 12253433
Alice Springs 12 12243332
Norfolk Island 9 12242222
Culgoora 12 31233333
Gingin 18 12253443
Camden 16 1235-333
Canberra 1 01------
Melbourne 17 13353333
Launceston 17 13353333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 36 23375531
Casey 26 45443434
Mawson 51 34333757
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3222 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Oct 25 Unsettled to Minor Storm
15 Oct 25 Unsettled to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 11 October
and is current for 12-13 Oct. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
to Active levels over the last 24 hours. Further gradual rise
in geomagnetic activity levels may be expected during the next
three days as the solar wind stream from the coronal hole is
expected to get stronger over 13 October and then stay strong
on 14 and 15 October. Geomagnetic conditions may rise up to Active
levels on 13 October. Isolated Minor Storm condition may be observed
on 14 and 15 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed over
the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
on 13 October with the possibility of further MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions on 14 and 15 October due to
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Oct 7 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
15 Oct 7 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in the
Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected on 13 October with the possibility of further
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions on 14 and 15
October due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:38%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 68600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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