[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 12 10:30:52 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Oct             13 Oct             14 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low for the UT day, 11 October with 
a C3.2 class X-ray flare at 2229UT. Expect solar activity to 
remain Very Low to Low for the next three days. The Solar wind 
speed continues to decline over the last 24 hours as the influence 
of the coronal hole subside ranging from 550 to 450 km/s, currently 
near 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic total field strength 
was 5nT during this period. The Bz component of the IMF ranged 
between +/-4nT. LASCO imagery showed a streamer on the south 
east limb break away as a CME in the first half of the UT day, 
11 October. It is not expected to be geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21213232
      Cocos Island         5   11102231
      Darwin               5   21112222
      Townsville           5   21122221
      Learmonth            8   21213232
      Alice Springs        6   21113222
      Norfolk Island       5   21212221
      Culgoora            13   33223333
      Gingin               8   21213232
      Camden               6   21123221
      Canberra             6   21113221
      Melbourne            8   21223231
      Launceston          10   22224232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    13   22235321
      Casey               15   24432233
      Mawson              46   56323375

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           18   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   4331 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active
13 Oct    25    Active
14 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled during the 
UT day, 11 October. Expect similar conditions today, 12 October, 
until the coronal hole is geoeffective. Due to the angle of the 
leading edge of the coronal hole it is uncertain when it will 
be geoeffective, most likely late in the UT day, today, or tomorrow, 
13 October. Expect Quiet to Unsettle conditions until the high 
speed solar wind stream associated with the coronal hole impacts 
Earth, then expect Active conditions with possible isolated periods 
of Minor to Major Storm levels in the Southern regions of Australia 
and the Antarctic.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
during the UT day, 11 October, and are expected to be depressed 
over the next couple of days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Oct    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Oct    15    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
13 Oct    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Oct    10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 9 October 
and is current for 10-12 Oct. HF radio propagation were depressed 
throughout the Australian region during 11 October. Expect depressed 
to mildly depressed MUFs over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:38%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 608 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   209000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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