[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 12 10:30:52 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low for the UT day, 11 October with
a C3.2 class X-ray flare at 2229UT. Expect solar activity to
remain Very Low to Low for the next three days. The Solar wind
speed continues to decline over the last 24 hours as the influence
of the coronal hole subside ranging from 550 to 450 km/s, currently
near 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic total field strength
was 5nT during this period. The Bz component of the IMF ranged
between +/-4nT. LASCO imagery showed a streamer on the south
east limb break away as a CME in the first half of the UT day,
11 October. It is not expected to be geoeffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 21213232
Cocos Island 5 11102231
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville 5 21122221
Learmonth 8 21213232
Alice Springs 6 21113222
Norfolk Island 5 21212221
Culgoora 13 33223333
Gingin 8 21213232
Camden 6 21123221
Canberra 6 21113221
Melbourne 8 21223231
Launceston 10 22224232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 13 22235321
Casey 15 24432233
Mawson 46 56323375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 4331 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Oct 25 Active
14 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled during the
UT day, 11 October. Expect similar conditions today, 12 October,
until the coronal hole is geoeffective. Due to the angle of the
leading edge of the coronal hole it is uncertain when it will
be geoeffective, most likely late in the UT day, today, or tomorrow,
13 October. Expect Quiet to Unsettle conditions until the high
speed solar wind stream associated with the coronal hole impacts
Earth, then expect Active conditions with possible isolated periods
of Minor to Major Storm levels in the Southern regions of Australia
and the Antarctic.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during the UT day, 11 October, and are expected to be depressed
over the next couple of days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
13 Oct 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Oct 10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 9 October
and is current for 10-12 Oct. HF radio propagation were depressed
throughout the Australian region during 11 October. Expect depressed
to mildly depressed MUFs over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:38%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 608 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list