[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 10 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 11 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Oct             12 Oct             13 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              90/34

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 10 October. 
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days. 
The Solar wind speed continues to decline over the last 24 hours 
as the influence of the coronal hole subside, currently near 
530km/s. The interplanetary magnetic total field strength was 
5-6nT during this period. The Bz component of the IMF ranged 
between +/-5nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22302211
      Cocos Island         4   22301200
      Darwin               5   22302101
      Townsville           6   22302211
      Learmonth            6   22312211
      Alice Springs        5   22302201
      Norfolk Island       4   22202111
      Culgoora            11   322-3323
      Gingin               9   32312312
      Camden               6   22302212
      Canberra             3   12202101
      Melbourne            8   22313212
      Launceston           9   23313212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    13   32513311
      Casey               19   35533212
      Mawson              27   34533445

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             22   5423 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Oct     6    Quiet
12 Oct    20    Active
13 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Expect mostly Quiet conditions today, 11 October, with 
Unsettled periods in the Southern regions of Australia and the 
Antarctic. In the second half of the UT day on 12 October expect 
geomagnetic activity to return to Active levels as the effects 
of southernmost part of the large north polar coronal hole becomes 
geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
during the UT day, 10 October, and are expected to be depressed 
over the next couple of days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Oct     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 55% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Oct    10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Oct    10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
13 Oct    10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 9 October 
and is current for 10-12 Oct. HF radio propagation were depressed 
throughout the Australian region during 10 October. Expect depressed 
to mildly depressed MUFs over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 664 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   234000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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