[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 10 10:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              90/34

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 09 October. 
Minor flaring was noted from active region 2429 during the UT 
day. Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three 
days. The Solar wind speed continues to decline over the last 
24 hours as the influence of the coronal hole subside, currently 
just over 600km/s. The interplanetary magnetic total field strength 
was approximately 6nT during this period. The Bz component of 
the IMF ranged between +/-5nT with prolonged periods of weak 
southward Bz.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   23234332
      Cocos Island        10   22133332
      Darwin              12   23134322
      Townsville          16   33244332
      Learmonth           21   23245443
      Alice Springs       18   23245333
      Norfolk Island      10   32133322
      Culgoora             9   22223-32
      Gingin              19   23244443
      Camden              14   33234332
      Canberra            10   22233322
      Melbourne           18   33244433
      Launceston          21   33245433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    33   33266532
      Casey               23   35444333
      Mawson              69   35644776

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           69   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        41
           Planetary             48   5664 4454     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct    12    Unsettled
11 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct    20    Active

COMMENT: Expect Unsettled to Quiet conditions today, 09 October 
with possible isolated Active periods in the Southern regions 
of Australia and the Antarctic driven by the increase in the 
solar wind speed due to a recurrent coronal hole. Expect the 
geomagnetic activity to slowly subside today and tomorrow as 
the coronal hole rotates westward. On 12 October expect geomagnetic 
activity to return to Active levels as the effects of southernmost 
part of the large north polar coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
during the UT day, 09 October, and are expected to be depressed 
over the next couple of days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Oct   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 55% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct     0    20 to 35% below predicted monthly values
11 Oct    10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Oct    10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 9 October 
and is current for 10-12 Oct. HF radio propagation were depressed 
throughout the Australian region during 09 October. Expect depressed 
to mildly depressed MUFs over the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 738 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   273000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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