[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 9 10:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Oct             10 Oct             11 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 08 October. 
Minor flaring was noted from active region 2427 on the northwest 
limb during the UT day. Expect solar activity to remain Very 
Low for the next three days. The Solar wind speed (just under 
800km/s) and temperature remained elevated and the density remained 
low over the last 24 hours due to the influence of the coronal 
hole. The interplanetary magnetic total field strength was approximately 
7nT during this period. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between 
+6/-7nT with prolonged periods of southward Bz.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Unsettled to 
Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      25   35444433
      Cocos Island        20   34434342
      Darwin              23   35444333
      Townsville          27   35544433
      Learmonth           31   35445543
      Alice Springs       25   35444433
      Norfolk Island      21   35533322
      Culgoora            40   35-66433
      Gingin              30   44445543
      Camden              29   -5544433
      Canberra            22   25434433
      Launceston          34   35545543    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    54   45666643
      Casey               26   45543333
      Mawson              81   44644687

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           19   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin             106   (Major storm)
      Canberra            56   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne          102   (Major storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        38
           Planetary             61                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        44
           Planetary            105   4665 5695     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Oct    20    Unsettled to Active
10 Oct    12    Unsettled
11 Oct    20    Active

COMMENT: Expect Active to Unsettled conditions today, 09 October 
with possible isolated Minor Storm periods in the Southern regions 
of Australia and the Antarctic driven by the increase in the 
solar wind speed due to a recurrent coronal hole. Expect the 
geomagnetic activity to slowly subside today and tomorrow as 
the coronal hole rotates westward. Late on 11 October expect 
geomagnetic activity to return to Active levels as the effects 
of southernmost part of the large north polar coronal hole becomes 
geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
during the UT day, 08 October, and are expected to be depressed 
over the next couple of days. HF propagation is expected to be 
fair to poor today, 09 October due to minor geomagnetic storm 
resulting from a high speed solar wind associated with a coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Oct   -25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Oct   -10    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
10 Oct    10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 Oct    10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 8 October 
and is current for 9 Oct only. HF radio propagation were depressed 
to mildly depressed throughout the Australian region during 08 
October. Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three 
days. Furthermore expect HF propagation to be fair to poor today 
due to the current geomagnetic storm.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 460 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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