[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 15 issued 2347 UT on 07 Oct 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 8 10:47:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 07 October. 
Minor flaring was noted from active region 2427 (N16W83) during 
the UT day. Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the 
next three days. An increase in the solar wind was detected by 
the ACE spacecraft at approximately 07/1230UT associated with 
a recurrent coronal hole. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 07/1600UT. The energetic ion 
peak at approximately 1945UT was correlated with a step change 
in the solar wind from 600 to 800km/s and a order of magnitude 
decrease in the density of the solar wind. Over the last 24 hours 
the solar wind increased from 400 to over 800km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +12/-18nT 
during this period and was mainly southward reaching the minimum 
at 07/1339UT. Erupting filaments were reported early in the UT 
day in the SE and SW quadrants and a CME was observed beginning 
at 07/0748UT using LASCO C2 imagery, however does not appear 
to be geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      28   24344554
      Cocos Island        19   23333453
      Darwin              26   24344553
      Townsville          30   34354553
      Learmonth           38   34345655
      Alice Springs       26   24344553
      Norfolk Island      26   24344553
      Culgoora            52   2--6-663
      Gingin              36   23345565
      Camden              37   24355564
      Canberra            26   24344553
      Launceston          52   25565664    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    63   25656674
      Casey               30   35333464
      Mawson              67   46664476

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           67   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        41
           Planetary             79                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   2431 3344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct    40    Minor Storm
09 Oct    12    Unsettled
10 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 5 October and 
is current for 8 Oct only. Expect Minor Storm to Unsettled conditions 
today, 08 October with possible isolated Major Storm periods 
in the Southern regions of Australia and the Antarctic driven 
by the increase in the solar wind speed due to a coronal hole. 
Expect the geomagnetic activity to slowly subside during 09-10 
October and return to Quiet to Unsettled conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
during the UT day, 07 October, and are expected to be depressed 
over the next couple of days. HF propagation is expected to be 
poor today, 08 October due to minor geomagnetic storm resulting 
from a high speed solar wind associated with a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Oct    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct    15    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
09 Oct    15    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
10 Oct    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 5 October 
and is current for 6-8 Oct. HF radio propagation were depressed 
to mildly depressed throughout the Australian region during 07 
October. Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three 
days. Furthermore expect HF propagation to be fair to poor today 
and tomorrow due to the current geomagnetic storm.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    38900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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