[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 7 10:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 06 October. 
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low to Low for the next 
three days. A recurrent coronal hole is expected to be geoeffective 
on 08 October which covers an extensive equatorial region. The 
solar wind speed ranged between 450 and 400 km/s over the last 
24 hours and is currently approximately 400 km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +6/-8nT during 
the last 24 hours with periods of prolonged negative Bz. Region 
2415 (S18) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return 
around 7 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22213333
      Cocos Island         9   12102433
      Darwin               8   22213322
      Townsville           8   12223322
      Learmonth           14   22215333
      Alice Springs        9   12113333
      Norfolk Island       7   -3212222
      Culgoora             9   22213323
      Gingin              16   22124444
      Camden              10   22223323
      Canberra             7   11113322
      Launceston          11   22223333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    17   13135433
      Casey               12   33332223
      Mawson              55   46523567

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   4345 3112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct    12    Unsettled
08 Oct    50    Storm Levels
09 Oct    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 5 October and 
is current for 8 Oct only. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
today, 07 October with possible Active periods in the Southern 
regions of Australia and the Antarctic mostly due to weak periods 
of negative Bz. The high speed solar wind stream emanating from 
the coronal hole is likely to drive a minor geomagnetic storm 
on 08 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Oct      Poor           Poor           Poor
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
during the UT day, 06 October. Conditions are expected to be 
depressed again today, 07 October. 08 October is expected to 
be Poor due to an anticipated minor geomagnetic storm resulting 
from a high speed solar wind associated with a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Oct    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct    15    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Oct    15    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
09 Oct    15    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 5 October 
and is current for 6-8 Oct. Conditions for HF radio propagation 
were depressed to mildly depressed throughout the Australian 
region during 06 Oct UT. Expect these conditions to prevail over 
the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    94400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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