[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 6 10:30:32 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 05 October. 
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days. 
A recurrent coronal hole is expected to be geoeffective on 08 
October which covers an extensive equatorial region. The solar 
wind speed ranged between 500 and 420 km/s over the last 24 hours 
and is currently approximately 420 km/s. The Bz component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-7nT during 
the last 24 hours with periods of prolonged negative Bz.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22342211
      Cocos Island         7   22231311
      Darwin               2   11122000
      Townsville          11   23343211
      Learmonth           12   22344221
      Alice Springs       10   23341211
      Norfolk Island       9   2234211-
      Culgoora            20   31363332
      Gingin              12   12351222
      Camden              15   23453211
      Canberra             8   12343100
      Launceston          19   23554211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    43   23675520
      Casey               19   45342322
      Mawson              33   45453326

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        8   (Quiet)
      Gingin               9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             25   4564 3324     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Oct    50    Storm Levels

COMMENT: Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions over the next two 
days with possible Active periods in the Southern regions of 
Australia and the Antarctic mostly due to weak periods of negative 
Bz. The high speed solar wind stream emanating from the coronal 
hole is likely to drive a minor geomagnetic storm on 08 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Oct      Poor           Poor           Poor

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
during the UT day, 05 October. Conditions are expected to be 
depressed again today, 06 October. 08 October is expected to 
be Poor due to an anticipated minor geomagnetic storm resulting 
from a high speed solar wind associated with a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Oct    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
07 Oct    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Oct    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were depressed to 
mildly depressed throughout the Australian region during 05 Oct 
UT. Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   217000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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