[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 5 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0241 UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: AR 2422 produced a short duration M1.0 solar X ray flare
peaking at 02:41 UT on 04 Oct UT. The background X-ray flux is
declining and solar flare activity is trending towards very low.
Coronal Hole (CH) 694 covers an extensive equatorial region and
it is currently traversing the central meridian. CH 694 will
rotate into the geoeffective region during the next 2-3 days.
A CIR and high speed solar wind stream emanating from CH 694
may drive a minor geomagnetic storm next weekend. The solar wind
speed peaked at above 500 km/s during 04 Oct and it is presently
about 480 km/s. The solar wind particle density decreased to
about 2 particles per cubic cm during 04 Oct. The magnitude of
the IMF has been about 10 nT and the Bz component was negative
during 00 to 08 UT. Another solar wind disturbance may arrive
today, 05 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 23422212
Darwin 2 11210001
Townsville 12 33432222
Learmonth 8 32322211
Norfolk Island 11 23522111
Culgoora 11 33332222
Camden 12 23522212
Canberra 10 23422212
Melbourne 15 33523222
Launceston 22 24633323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island - --------
Casey - --------
Mawson - --------
Space Weather Services is currently not receiving data from many
magnetometers. This technical fault will be rectified as soon as
possible.
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs NA
Gingin NA
Canberra NA
Melbourne 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 2333 3331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
06 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled
to active in the Australian region during 04 Oct UT. The Kp index
reached 5 during 06-09 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be unsettled to active today, 05 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during 04 Oct UT. Conditions are expected to be depressed again
today, 05 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 30 10 to 45% below predicted monthly values
06 Oct 35 0 to 40% below predicted monthly values
07 Oct 40 0 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were depressed to
mildly depressed throughout the Australian region during 04 Oct
UT. T indices were in the approximate range 15 to 65 for individual
stations. For example, the T index was only 15 for Norfolk Island,
27 for Hobart and 38 for Brisbane, but as large as 62 for Niue.
Conditions are expected to be depressed today, 05 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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