[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 5 10:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1.0    0241 UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Low                Very low to low    Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: AR 2422 produced a short duration M1.0 solar X ray flare 
peaking at 02:41 UT on 04 Oct UT. The background X-ray flux is 
declining and solar flare activity is trending towards very low. 
Coronal Hole (CH) 694 covers an extensive equatorial region and 
it is currently traversing the central meridian. CH 694 will 
rotate into the geoeffective region during the next 2-3 days. 
A CIR and high speed solar wind stream emanating from CH 694 
may drive a minor geomagnetic storm next weekend. The solar wind 
speed peaked at above 500 km/s during 04 Oct and it is presently 
about 480 km/s. The solar wind particle density decreased to 
about 2 particles per cubic cm during 04 Oct. The magnitude of 
the IMF has been about 10 nT and the Bz component was negative 
during 00 to 08 UT. Another solar wind disturbance may arrive 
today, 05 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23422212
      Darwin               2   11210001
      Townsville          12   33432222
      Learmonth            8   32322211
      Norfolk Island      11   23522111
      Culgoora            11   33332222
      Camden              12   23522212
      Canberra            10   23422212
      Melbourne           15   33523222
      Launceston          22   24633323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     -   --------
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson               -   --------

Space Weather Services is currently not receiving data from many 
magnetometers. This technical fault will be rectified as soon as 
possible.

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne            7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   2333 3331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active
06 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled 
to active in the Australian region during 04 Oct UT. The Kp index 
reached 5 during 06-09 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be unsettled to active today, 05 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
during 04 Oct UT. Conditions are expected to be depressed again 
today, 05 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Oct    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct    30    10 to 45% below predicted monthly values
06 Oct    35    0 to 40% below predicted monthly values
07 Oct    40    0 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were depressed to 
mildly depressed throughout the Australian region during 04 Oct 
UT. T indices were in the approximate range 15 to 65 for individual 
stations. For example, the T index was only 15 for Norfolk Island, 
27 for Hobart and 38 for Brisbane, but as large as 62 for Niue. 
Conditions are expected to be depressed today, 05 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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