[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 4 10:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct:  Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Oct             05 Oct             06 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 03 Oct UT. Active 
Regions 2420, 2422 and 2427 produced low level C class flares. 
Solar flare activity is expected to be low during the next 2 
days. No new Earthward directed CME was launched during 03 Oct. 
The solar wind speed is presently about 400 km/s and the solar 
wind particle density is about 8 per cubic cm. The magnitude 
of the IMF is presently about 8 nT and the Bz component fluctuated 
mostly in the range of -6 nT to +6 nT during 03 Oct. Fast solar 
wind and a glancing blow from the bright CMEs launched toward 
the west on 30 Sep may still arrive today, 04 Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   13213211
      Darwin               1   01001100
      Townsville           9   13213322
      Learmonth            6   22212311
      Norfolk Island       7   23113221
      Culgoora             9   23322222
      Camden               9   13323212
      Canberra             7   13213211
      Melbourne           12   14323322
      Launceston          14   24433222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     -   --------
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson               -   --------

Space Weather Services is currently not receiving data from many 
magnetometers. This technical fault will be rectified as soon 
as possible.

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   2333 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Oct    25    Active
05 Oct    20    Active
06 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 1 October and 
is current for 2-4 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to 
unsettled in the Australian region during 03 Oct UT. The Kp index 
reached 4 during 03-06 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be unsettled to active during 04-05 Oct. A minor geomagnetic 
storm may occur later today, 04 Oct, due to a possible glancing 
blow from a CME.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
05 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed during 03 Oct. A minor geomagnetic storm may occur 
during 04-05 Oct. This may lead to deeper depressions during 
04-06 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Oct    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Oct    45    0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
05 Oct    50    0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
06 Oct    55    0 to 15% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mildly depressed 
throughout the Australian region during 03 Oct UT. T indices 
were mostly in the range 50 to 65 for individual stations. However, 
the T index was only 34 for Darwin. A minor geomagnetic storm 
may occur during 04-05 Oct. This may lead to deeper depressions 
during 04-06 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    67600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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