[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 4 10:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 03 Oct UT. Active
Regions 2420, 2422 and 2427 produced low level C class flares.
Solar flare activity is expected to be low during the next 2
days. No new Earthward directed CME was launched during 03 Oct.
The solar wind speed is presently about 400 km/s and the solar
wind particle density is about 8 per cubic cm. The magnitude
of the IMF is presently about 8 nT and the Bz component fluctuated
mostly in the range of -6 nT to +6 nT during 03 Oct. Fast solar
wind and a glancing blow from the bright CMEs launched toward
the west on 30 Sep may still arrive today, 04 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 13213211
Darwin 1 01001100
Townsville 9 13213322
Learmonth 6 22212311
Norfolk Island 7 23113221
Culgoora 9 23322222
Camden 9 13323212
Canberra 7 13213211
Melbourne 12 14323322
Launceston 14 24433222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island - --------
Casey - --------
Mawson - --------
Space Weather Services is currently not receiving data from many
magnetometers. This technical fault will be rectified as soon
as possible.
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs NA
Gingin NA
Canberra NA
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 2333 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 25 Active
05 Oct 20 Active
06 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 1 October and
is current for 2-4 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to
unsettled in the Australian region during 03 Oct UT. The Kp index
reached 4 during 03-06 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be unsettled to active during 04-05 Oct. A minor geomagnetic
storm may occur later today, 04 Oct, due to a possible glancing
blow from a CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed during 03 Oct. A minor geomagnetic storm may occur
during 04-05 Oct. This may lead to deeper depressions during
04-06 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 45 0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
05 Oct 50 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
06 Oct 55 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mildly depressed
throughout the Australian region during 03 Oct UT. T indices
were mostly in the range 50 to 65 for individual stations. However,
the T index was only 34 for Darwin. A minor geomagnetic storm
may occur during 04-05 Oct. This may lead to deeper depressions
during 04-06 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 67600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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