[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 3 09:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5.5    0013 UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Oct             04 Oct             05 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              85/27              90/34

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was high during 02 Oct UT. AR 2422 
(S19 W67) produced a short duration M5.5 flare peaking at 00:13 
UT, two M1.0 flares, and at least eleven C class flares. AR 2422 
will likely produce more significant flares before it disappears 
completely beyond the south west limb. Thereafter we expect solar 
flare activity to drop to low levels. No Earthward directed CMEs 
were associated with the flares occurring during 02 Oct. A modest 
solar wind compression arrived at Earth during 01 Oct and its 
impact declined during 02 Oct. The magnitude of the IMF reached 
about 12 nT and the solar wind speed increased to about 400 km/s. 
The solar wind speed is presently about 360 km/s and the Bz component 
is weakly southward at about -2 nT. A Corotating Interaction 
Region (CIR) and subsequent fast solar wind may arrive at Earth 
today, 03 Oct. The effects of this disturbance may be compounded 
by the arrival of a glancing blow from the bright CMEs launched 
toward the west on 30 Sep. If these CMEs do impact Earth, they 
are expected to arrive during 04 Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12322221
      Darwin               1   01101000
      Townsville           8   13322221
      Learmonth            7   23222221
      Norfolk Island       7   223222-0
      Culgoora             7   -2322211
      Camden               7   22322221
      Canberra             5   12222211
      Melbourne           10   13333221
      Launceston          12   13433321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    11   23233---
      Casey               19   441-----
      Mawson              19   343-----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   1121 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Oct    25    Active
04 Oct    35    Active to Minor Storm
05 Oct    20    Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 1 October and 
is current for 2-4 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled 
to active during 02 Oct UT. The Kp index reached 4 during 03-09 
UT due to the ongoing impact of the solar wind compression which 
arrived during 01 Oct. A CIR and subsequent fast solar wind may 
arrive at Earth today, 03 Oct. The effects of this disturbance 
may be compounded by the arrival of a glancing blow from the 
bright CMEs launched toward the west on 30 Sep. If these CMEs 
do impact Earth, they are expected to arrive during 04 Oct. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to reach active to minor storm levels 
during 03-05 Oct. A major geomagnetic storm is possible depending 
on the strength of the CME impacts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
04 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
05 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were moderately 
depressed at mid-latitude locations during 02 Oct. A minor geomagnetic 
storm is expected during 04-05 Oct. This may lead to deeper depressions 
during 04-06 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Oct    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Oct    50    0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Oct    45    0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
05 Oct    45    0 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were moderately 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 02 Oct UT. 
The T indices were mostly in the range 40 to 60 for individual 
stations. However, the T index was only 30 for Darwin and 34 
for Perth. A minor geomagnetic storm is expected during 03-05 
Oct. This may lead to deeper depressions during 04-06 Oct.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:    45900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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