[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 2 09:30:35 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.5    1310UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during 01 Oct UT. AR 2422 
(S17 W69) produced an M4.5 event peaking at 13:10 UT. Solar flare 
activity is starting to decline, but AR 2422 will probably produce 
more significant flares before it rotates beyond the south west 
limb. The massive CMEs launched toward the west on 30 Sep are 
not Earthward directed but a glancing blow is possible commencing 
late 03 Oct or early 04 Oct. A Corotating Interaction Region 
(CIR) and subsequent fast solar wind is expected to arrive at 
Earth late 02 Oct or during the first half of 03 Oct. The slow 
solar wind arriving at Earth increased to above 350 km/s during 
the second half of 01 Oct. The magnitude of the IMF increased 
to about 12 nT and the Bz component was predominately southward 
during 10-18 UT. The Bz component is presently fluctuating between 
about -10 nT and +8 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11212322
      Cocos Island         5   11111322
      Darwin               7   21102323
      Townsville           8   22212323
      Learmonth            8   22112422
      Alice Springs        6   11202322
      Norfolk Island       6   21102322
      Culgoora             7   12212322
      Gingin               9   21112432
      Camden               8   12213322
      Canberra             7   11203322
      Launceston           9   12213332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    15   11214541
      Casey               10   23322322
      Mawson              19   33113454

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0001 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct    20    Active
03 Oct    25    Active
04 Oct    35    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during 
01 Oct UT. The magnitude of the IMF increased to about 12 nT 
during the second half of the day. There was a prolonged interval 
of predominately southward conditions during 10-18 UT. The Kp 
index reached 4 during this interval. A Corotating Interacting 
Region (CIR) and subsequent fast wind is expected to arrive at 
Earth late today, 02 Oct, or early 03 Oct. The massive CMEs launched 
toward the west on 30 Sep might glance the Earth commencing late 
03 Oct or early 04 Oct. The outlook for 02 Oct is unsettled to 
active condition. The outlook for 03-04 Oct is active to minor 
storm levels. A major storm might occur if the massive CMEs impact 
Earth immediately following the arrival of a strong CIR and fast 
wind.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mildly depressed at mid-latitude locations today, 2 Oct 
UT. Minor geomagnetic storms are expected during 02-04 Oct. This 
may lead to deeper depressions in coming days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct    50    0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Oct    50    0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Oct    50    0 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mixed throughout 
the Australian region during 01 Oct UT. The T index was 125 for 
Cocos Island and 131 for Darwin (both enhanced). However, the 
T index for Niue was only 22 (depressed). T indices for the mid-latitude 
stations were mostly in the range of about 50 to 73 (mildly depressed). 
Minor geomagnetic storms are expected during 02-04 Oct. This 
may lead to depressed conditions for HF radio wave propagation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    23700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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