[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 2 09:30:35 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.5 1310UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during 01 Oct UT. AR 2422
(S17 W69) produced an M4.5 event peaking at 13:10 UT. Solar flare
activity is starting to decline, but AR 2422 will probably produce
more significant flares before it rotates beyond the south west
limb. The massive CMEs launched toward the west on 30 Sep are
not Earthward directed but a glancing blow is possible commencing
late 03 Oct or early 04 Oct. A Corotating Interaction Region
(CIR) and subsequent fast solar wind is expected to arrive at
Earth late 02 Oct or during the first half of 03 Oct. The slow
solar wind arriving at Earth increased to above 350 km/s during
the second half of 01 Oct. The magnitude of the IMF increased
to about 12 nT and the Bz component was predominately southward
during 10-18 UT. The Bz component is presently fluctuating between
about -10 nT and +8 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11212322
Cocos Island 5 11111322
Darwin 7 21102323
Townsville 8 22212323
Learmonth 8 22112422
Alice Springs 6 11202322
Norfolk Island 6 21102322
Culgoora 7 12212322
Gingin 9 21112432
Camden 8 12213322
Canberra 7 11203322
Launceston 9 12213332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 11214541
Casey 10 23322322
Mawson 19 33113454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 20 Active
03 Oct 25 Active
04 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
01 Oct UT. The magnitude of the IMF increased to about 12 nT
during the second half of the day. There was a prolonged interval
of predominately southward conditions during 10-18 UT. The Kp
index reached 4 during this interval. A Corotating Interacting
Region (CIR) and subsequent fast wind is expected to arrive at
Earth late today, 02 Oct, or early 03 Oct. The massive CMEs launched
toward the west on 30 Sep might glance the Earth commencing late
03 Oct or early 04 Oct. The outlook for 02 Oct is unsettled to
active condition. The outlook for 03-04 Oct is active to minor
storm levels. A major storm might occur if the massive CMEs impact
Earth immediately following the arrival of a strong CIR and fast
wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed at mid-latitude locations today, 2 Oct
UT. Minor geomagnetic storms are expected during 02-04 Oct. This
may lead to deeper depressions in coming days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 50 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Oct 50 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Oct 50 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mixed throughout
the Australian region during 01 Oct UT. The T index was 125 for
Cocos Island and 131 for Darwin (both enhanced). However, the
T index for Niue was only 22 (depressed). T indices for the mid-latitude
stations were mostly in the range of about 50 to 73 (mildly depressed).
Minor geomagnetic storms are expected during 02-04 Oct. This
may lead to depressed conditions for HF radio wave propagation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 23700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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