[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Sep 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 1 09:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1.3    1059 UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Oct             02 Oct             03 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during 30 Sep UT. AR 2422 
produced two weak M class flares, an M1.3 event peaking at 10:59 
UT and an M1.1 event peaking at 13:20 UT. AR 2422 is still large 
and complex and it will likely produce more M class flares during 
the next 2 days. AR 2422 is rotating towards the south west limb 
and hence into a less geoeffective location. SOHO LASCO coronograms 
recorded two bright CMEs during 30 Sep, one expanding toward 
the north west and the other toward the south west. These CMEs 
are not Earthward directed. A significant solar filament is located 
in a geoeffective location in the Southern Hemisphere. Coronal 
Holes 692 and 693 have rotated into the Western Hemisphere. A 
Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) and subsequent fast solar 
wind is expected to arrive at Earth during 2-3 Oct. The slow 
solar wind arriving at Earth gradually decreased to its current 
value of 300 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF decreased to 2 nT 
and the Bz component has been weak and predominantly northward.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               2   12100001
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            1   12000001
      Alice Springs        1   11000001
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             0   11000000
      Gingin               1   11100001
      Camden               1   11010011
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           1   11110010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                4   12310111
      Mawson               3   21110022

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1312 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Oct     6    Quiet
02 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active
03 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet on 30 Sep 2015. The 
Earth is presently immersed in slow solar wind and the geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet today, 1 Oct. 
A Corotating Interacting Region (CIR) and subsequent fast wind 
is expected to arrive at Earth during 2-3 Oct and drive unsettled 
to active geomagnetic conditions. A minor geomagnetic storm is 
possible.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mixed at mid-latitude locations today, 1 Oct. They may 
be slightly depressed for some regions and moderately depressed 
for other regions. Significant enhancements are possible at low 
latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Sep    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      46
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Oct    55    0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
02 Oct    55    0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
03 Oct    55    0 to 15% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mixed throughout 
the Australian region during 30 Sep UT. The T index for Cocos 
Island was 70 (near to normal) but the T index for Niue was only 
33. The T indices for Townsville and Norfolk Island were 42 and 
38, respectively. However, the T indices for Perth, Sydney Canberra 
and Hobart were in the range 52 to 62 (mildly depressed).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    44500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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