[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 22 10:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the last 24 hours. AR 2436(N08E16) 
produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C7 flare 
that peaked at 1756 UT. AR 2436 is a large active region with 
the potential to produce further strong C class flares and possibly 
an M-class flare. There are presently no Earthward directed CMEs. 
ACE spacecraft detected the onset of the anticipated coronal 
hole at approximately 0800UT, the solar wind speed stayed around 
375Km/s until ~ 0800 then it increased to 480km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-8nT during 
this period. Further strengthening in solar wind stream is expected 
due to the coronal hole effect over the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12243212
      Cocos Island         7   12233211
      Darwin               9   22243211
      Townsville          10   22243222
      Learmonth           12   12244321
      Alice Springs        9   22243211
      Norfolk Island       8   01243211
      Culgoora             8   11123233
      Gingin               9   11234222
      Camden              11   12244212
      Canberra             7   12233201
      Melbourne           12   12244312
      Launceston          13   22244322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    17   11146311
      Casey               17   34443223
      Mawson              18   33234325

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           15   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2221 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct    12    Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods.
23 Oct     7    Quiet.
24 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels over 
the last 24 hours due to the effect of anticipated high speed 
solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to remain enhanced for day 1, 22 Oct and slowly 
subside during 23-24 Oct and return to Quiet conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Oct    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
23 Oct    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
24 Oct    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: There was continuing recovery in all regions over the 
poor ionospheric support for HF propagation of the previous week. 
Elevated geomagnetic activity may negatively impact HF propagation 
conditions, mainly in the Antarctic region. Space Weather Services 
is currently not receiving data from many stations. This technical 
fault will be rectified as soon as possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:    37700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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