[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 24 10:30:41 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low on 23 Nov UT and it is
expected to remain low during the next 48 hours. AR 2454 (N11W60)
produced the largest flare during the past 24 hours, a long duration
C8.7 event peaking at 02:28 UT. AR 2454 might produce a weak
M class flare before rotating beyond the western limb. The bulk
of the CME associated with the filament eruption on 22 Nov is
propagating toward the east and will miss Earth. However, SOHO
LASCO images show a faint partial halo which may impact Earth
during 25 Nov. The Earth is currently immersed in slow solar
wind with a speed of about 340 km/s. A Corotating Interaction
Region (CIR) and subsequent fast wind is expected to arrive at
Earth early on 25 Nov. The magnitude of the IMF has been about
4 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating between about
-2 nT and +3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11001001
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11001001
Townsville 1 11001011
Learmonth 1 10001002
Alice Springs 1 10001001
Norfolk Island 1 11000002
Gingin 1 10101001
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 1 10101000
Launceston 2 11111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 01011000
Casey 11 34421111
Mawson 5 22112022
Davis 9 33322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 5 Quiet
25 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
26 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 23 Nov UT and
they are expected to remain quiet for most of today, 24 Nov.
Conditions are expected to become unsettled to active during
24-25 Nov due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of fast wind and
a possible minor CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were slightly enhanced
in the Southern Hemisphere and mildly depressed in the Northern
Hemisphere during 23 Nov UT. Conditions are expected to be near
to predicted monthly values or mildly enhanced in the Southern
Hemisphere today. Conditions may depress in both hemispheres
due to active geomagnetic conditions during 24-25 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near predicted
monthly values at most Australian region stations during 23 Nov
UT. The conditions were persistently enhanced at Hobart where
the daily T index was 107. Conditions are expected to remain
near predicted monthly values today, 24 Nov. Increased geomagnetic
activity may lead to depressed HF propagation conditions during
25-26 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 33100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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